How many pounds of honey must a 500-colony apiary sell?
Calculate apiary break-even from marketable honey pounds, realized channel value, contribution, producing colonies and fixed operating cost.
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The StartFigures 500-producing-colony apiary case needs about 19,700 marketable honey-pound equivalents per year to cover simplified operating costs. At $10 realized product revenue per marketable pound and a 62% contribution margin, each pound contributes $6.20. With $10,167 of monthly fixed costs and four selling days per week, the continuous threshold is about 94.7 pounds per selling day.
Across 500 producing colonies, that threshold equals about 39.4 marketable pounds per colony. The Year-three case uses 21,840 pounds, or 43.7 pounds per colony. USDA reports a 48.0-pound national average for producing colonies in 2025, but the national estimate is context rather than a prediction for one apiary.
The 500 colonies, $10 realized value, 43.7-pound yield, 62% contribution and $10,167 monthly fixed cost are authored assumptions. They are not a colony-health finding, local yield forecast, food approval or buyer commitment.
Define one marketable pound once
A marketable honey-pound equivalent is one pound of saleable honey output, with any allocated beeswax product revenue converted once for a readable public calculation. The production ledger keeps actual honey pounds, wax output, package sizes, units, discounts, fees, returns and inventory separate.
The matching paid workbook uses the E11 continuous biological-producer engine. Active colonies drive annual output, production loss is applied and saleable categories use their own mix and price. Pollination, queens and nucleus colonies remain zero in this base case. Honey cannot be counted once by physical pounds and again through packaged units.
Reconcile pounds to producing colonies
| Output step | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|
| USDA national 2025 context | 500 colonies × 48.0 lb | 24,000 lb/year |
| Year-three case | 21,840 lb ÷ 500 colonies | 43.7 lb/colony |
| Operating break-even | 19,693 lb ÷ 500 colonies | 39.4 lb/colony |
| Base buffer | 43.7 − 39.4 lb | 4.3 lb/colony |
USDA's number is a national average across varied states and operations. It does not prove forage, winter survival, treatment effectiveness, colony strength or marketable moisture and quality for the proposed yards. Use colony and yard records through complete seasons.
Calculate pound-level break-even
At a 62% contribution margin, $10 of realized product revenue leaves $6.20 contribution per marketable pound after feed, treatment, colony replacement, packaging, testing, channel fees, freight and product-linked costs.
$10,167 ÷ $6.20 ÷ 4 ÷ 4.33 = 94.68 marketable pounds per selling day. Across 52 weeks, the equivalent annual threshold is about 19,693 pounds.
At 105 pounds per selling day, monthly revenue is 105 × $10 × 4 × 4.33 = $18,186. Contribution is about $11,275, leaving about $1,108 monthly operating surplus before depreciation, financing, income tax, major replacement capital, detailed inventory and working-capital timing and distributions.
Stress channel value, contribution and fixed cost
| Case | Assumptions | Pounds/day |
|---|---|---|
| USDA price benchmark | $3.05/lb · 62% margin · $10,167 fixed/month | 310.4 |
| Base | $10/lb · 62% margin · $10,167 fixed/month | 94.7 |
| Higher realized value | $15/lb · 62% margin · $10,167 fixed/month | 63.1 |
| More direct-cost leakage | $10/lb · 48% margin · $10,167 fixed/month | 122.3 |
| Higher fixed cost | $10/lb · 62% margin · $15,000 fixed/month | 139.6 |
USDA's $3.05 is a national weighted price benchmark, not a direct-retail forecast. Applying the same 62% margin at that price would require more than 64,000 pounds per year, beyond the 500-colony national-average output illustration. The base case therefore depends on actually proving its packaged and channel mix, not relabeling a bulk crop with a retail price.
Read the USDA benchmark with its methodology
USDA NASS reports 2025 U.S. honey production of 116 million pounds from 2.41 million producing colonies, or 48.0 pounds per colony, and a national weighted price of $3.05 per pound. The same report includes selected queen, package, nucleus-colony, pollination and other bee income measures; this base case does not add those revenue streams. USDA Honey report.
The NASS methodology describes a state and national survey targeting known producers with five or more colonies. Sampling, estimation and the varied population make the result useful as context, not as a promise for a particular yard or sales channel. USDA methodology.
Put colony health and pesticide communication before scale
EPA describes state and tribal pollinator-protection planning and communication tools. It also maintains the current list of registered products approved for Varroa control and emphasizes label compliance. Those resources do not prescribe one treatment calendar or guarantee survival. Pollinator-protection tools and registered Varroa products.
Read the five-year case
| Year | Revenue | Operating result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | $95,000 | -$52,750 |
| 2 | $160,000 | -$20,200 |
| 3 | $218,400 | $13,408 |
| 4 | $270,000 | $32,100 |
| 5 | $325,000 | $48,000 |
The next test is a complete season with at least 100 producing colonies and 5,000 paid, traceable marketable pounds. Record survival, strength, treatment, yard, harvest, batch, moisture or quality checks, packaging, labor, channel value, returns, inventory and collection. Add the next colony tranche only when biological, processing, market and cash gates all pass.
The Apiary & Beekeeping Business case contains the complete $240,000 allocation and forecast. Its evidence register separates sources from assumptions, while the business plan and financial model explain colony output, channels and product adaptation.