Bar & Nightclub input evidence register
45 numeric input paths with their assumptions, calculation bases and cited sources.
Case updated September 29, 2026. This technical appendix accompanies the complete case methodology and source register.
Dataset use notice: no Creative Commons license or DOI is asserted. Referenced material remains subject to its publisher’s terms.
A linked reference can support scope without confirming an exact forecast. Assumption entries identify values that still require local validation. Each field path identifies an input in the common business record.
- Model assumption
Authored nightlife-venue opening allocation. The sources establish planning and regulatory categories but do not verify a site, license, build-out, equipment, insurance or reserve amount.
capital.total · capital.low · capital.high · capital.items.0.amount · capital.items.1.amount · capital.items.2.amount · capital.items.3.amount · capital.items.4.amount · capital.items.5.amount · capital.items.6.amount · capital.items.7.amount
- Model assumption
Authored five-year revenue path. Census establishes national scope and employer context but not local visits, spend, calendar or growth.
forecast.years.0.revenue · forecast.years.1.revenue · forecast.years.2.revenue · forecast.years.3.revenue · forecast.years.4.revenue
- Model assumption
Authored direct-cost percentages covering beverage product, entertainment, fees, comps, refunds and event-linked costs. No source validates the percentages.
forecast.years.0.costOfSales · forecast.years.1.costOfSales · forecast.years.2.costOfSales · forecast.years.3.costOfSales · forecast.years.4.costOfSales
- Model assumption
Authored paid roster. BLS and IRS provide broad wage and federal employer context but not local offers, tips, hours, staffing, licensing or full burden.
forecast.years.0.payroll · forecast.years.1.payroll · forecast.years.2.payroll · forecast.years.3.payroll · forecast.years.4.payroll
- Model assumption
Authored occupancy and overhead path. Sources identify industry and operating obligations but not rent, utilities, insurance, music, security, marketing or compliance cost.
forecast.years.0.occupancyAndOther · forecast.years.1.occupancyAndOther · forecast.years.2.occupancyAndOther · forecast.years.3.occupancyAndOther · forecast.years.4.occupancyAndOther
- Model assumption
The $58 guest value, 390 visits, four-night week, 65% contribution, $223,000 monthly fixed cost and ramp are authored assumptions. The cited sources provide context only.
unitEconomics.driver.model · unitEconomics.driver.low · unitEconomics.driver.high · unitEconomics.volume.model · unitEconomics.volume.low · unitEconomics.volume.high · unitEconomics.daysPerWeek.model · unitEconomics.daysPerWeek.low · unitEconomics.daysPerWeek.high · unitEconomics.fixedCostsMonthly · unitEconomics.contributionMargin · unitEconomics.ramp.startShare · unitEconomics.ramp.stepPerMonth · unitEconomics.ramp.horizonMonths