Beauty Supply Store input evidence register
45 financial inputs with their assumptions, calculation bases and cited sources.
Read the supported claim, observation period, geography and units together. A source access date records when it was consulted. A model assumption identifies a selected amount or target; a calculated result follows from those inputs and does not establish observed demand or a quoted opening budget.
Case updated October 5, 2026. These notes accompany the complete case methodology and source register.
Dataset use notice: no Creative Commons license or DOI is asserted. Referenced material remains subject to its publisher’s terms.
These notes explain the opening budget, annual forecast and calculator assumptions. Linked sources provide the support described in each note; they do not necessarily confirm the selected amounts. Check scenario assumptions against local quotes and operating records.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Total opening budget · Lower opening budget · Upper opening budget
Authored low/base/high opening scopes reconcile to 95000/160000/230000 USD in the private calculations. Low: about 1000 sq ft already-fitted premises, reused fixtures and narrower stock; base: 1300 sq ft with selective fit-out and balanced assortment; high: about 1800 sq ft requiring more site work, more displays and deeper stock. All scopes retain paid operation and separate stock/cash. These are whole-project scenarios, not observed price bounds, rent averages or statistical intervals. Obtain a landlord work matrix, installed fixture quote and supplier opening order before commitment.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Retail fit-out and electrical work
Selected 30000 USD for selective tenant fit-out, electrical adjustments and inspection-related work at an assumed already-usable retail site. Building condition, landlord contribution and jurisdiction remain unverified; no shell conversion or specialist salon work is assumed.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Shelving, displays and checkout counter
Selected 12000 USD for gondolas, wall shelving, secure displays, checkout counter and backroom shelving, including assembly/freight/tax allowances. One observed vendor gondola is 489.95 USD; it does not quote this installed package or establish the necessary quantity.
- Model assumption
Applies to: POS, security and stock-control setup
Selected 7000 USD for POS hardware, barcode/stock-control setup, network, cameras and installation. Processor and support quotations are needed; recurring subscriptions belong in operating overhead.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Deposits, registration and professional setup
Selected 10000 USD combines refundable occupancy/utility deposits and one-time business/professional setup. Deposits are assets, not a second rent expense. Local registration, sales-tax and occupancy requirements must be verified; FDA guidance does not confer a local retail license.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Opening inventory at landed cost
Selected 45000 USD opening stock at landed acquisition cost. Illustrative breadth check: 900 product variants times five salable units times 10 USD average landed acquisition cost. This is an authored assortment sketch, not a supplier order, market average or adequate SKU-level fill-rate proof. The opening stock mix can differ from the ongoing sold mix; the sketch does not set the ongoing cost per sold unit.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Pre-opening labor, training and launch
Selected 9000 USD for paid pre-opening receiving/training and initial launch activity. Applies before the first forecast month; annual payroll starts with the trading period, avoiding duplicate pre-opening hours.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Operating and stock-timing cash reserve
Selected 35000 USD separate opening cash. The independent audit calculates the ramp trough and stresses an additional 20000 USD stock payment; the allowance is not a source-guaranteed runway and excludes debt service, tax, replacement and owner distributions.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Installation and opening contingency
Selected 12000 USD one-time installation/opening contingency. It is distinct from operating reserve, with no assumed automatic later release into revenue or profit.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Revenue (Year 1)
Year one is the sum of the first twelve shared-convention months: net basket 32 USD, mature 60 orders/day, six days/week, 4.33 weeks/month and shares 0.60,0.68,0.76,0.84,0.92 then 1.00. Round each annual sales total once to whole USD. The basket averages two sold units at 16 USD net realization each; it excludes sales tax and is after discounts and expected sales returns. The target includes new and repeat orders once each. Industry and paid-product sources establish mechanisms only, never local demand or these selected values.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Sold goods, shrink, bags, returns handling and processing (Year 1)
Round 59% of this year's whole-dollar net sales once: selected landed sold-goods cost 54%, stock shrink/write-offs 1.5%, bags and incremental returns handling 0.5%, and effective processing 3%. Returned selling value is already deducted from revenue; salable returns reverse goods cost, and only unsalable loss enters shrink/write-offs. No duplicate deduction of refunded sales. Payment allowance bridges 90% card share, assumed 8% sales tax on taxable checkout amounts, and Square Free 2.6% plus 0.15 USD; actual basket, taxability, tender/plan and refunds require validation. The resulting 41% contribution is selected, not a quoted chain gross margin.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Paid owner, retail staff, employer costs and relief (Year 1)
Selected annual payroll 130000 USD includes owner-manager 52000 USD for 40 paid hours/week, lead 30 hours/week at 20 USD, and sales associate 30 hours/week at 18 USD, using 52 payroll weeks. Wage base 111280 USD plus selected 12% employer costs is 124633.60 USD, rounded to 124634; another 5366 USD funds paid relief/leave cover, including its employer costs. The national May 2025 retail-salesperson median is 17.03 USD/hour, not a local hiring quote. Federal FICA is only part of total employer cost. Calendar includes 35 owner shop-floor hours and five purchasing/admin hours; local overtime and leave compliance require review.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Occupancy, systems, insurance, marketing and recurring upkeep (Year 1)
Selected annual fixed overhead 80000 USD: occupancy 39000 (assumed 1300 sq ft times 30 USD/sq ft/year all-in cash rent and common-area charges), utilities/connectivity 8400, insurance 6000, POS/stock software 4800, ongoing marketing 10800, bookkeeping/professional support 4800 and cleaning/security/upkeep 6200. These are authored line allowances, not national averages or signed quotes. Check lease inclusions and avoid adding NNN charges again; major replacement, depreciation, financing and income tax remain separate.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Revenue (Year 2)
Years two through five hold the same mature basket, completed-order count and calendar constant in 2026 dollars; no inflation, growth or store expansion is assumed. Round each annual sales total once to whole USD. The basket averages two sold units at 16 USD net realization each; it excludes sales tax and is after discounts and expected sales returns. The target includes new and repeat orders once each. Industry and paid-product sources establish mechanisms only, never local demand or these selected values.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Sold goods, shrink, bags, returns handling and processing (Year 2)
Round 59% of this year's whole-dollar net sales once: selected landed sold-goods cost 54%, stock shrink/write-offs 1.5%, bags and incremental returns handling 0.5%, and effective processing 3%. Returned selling value is already deducted from revenue; salable returns reverse goods cost, and only unsalable loss enters shrink/write-offs. No duplicate deduction of refunded sales. Payment allowance bridges 90% card share, assumed 8% sales tax on taxable checkout amounts, and Square Free 2.6% plus 0.15 USD; actual basket, taxability, tender/plan and refunds require validation. The resulting 41% contribution is selected, not a quoted chain gross margin.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Paid owner, retail staff, employer costs and relief (Year 2)
Selected annual payroll 130000 USD includes owner-manager 52000 USD for 40 paid hours/week, lead 30 hours/week at 20 USD, and sales associate 30 hours/week at 18 USD, using 52 payroll weeks. Wage base 111280 USD plus selected 12% employer costs is 124633.60 USD, rounded to 124634; another 5366 USD funds paid relief/leave cover, including its employer costs. The national May 2025 retail-salesperson median is 17.03 USD/hour, not a local hiring quote. Federal FICA is only part of total employer cost. Calendar includes 35 owner shop-floor hours and five purchasing/admin hours; local overtime and leave compliance require review.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Occupancy, systems, insurance, marketing and recurring upkeep (Year 2)
Selected annual fixed overhead 80000 USD: occupancy 39000 (assumed 1300 sq ft times 30 USD/sq ft/year all-in cash rent and common-area charges), utilities/connectivity 8400, insurance 6000, POS/stock software 4800, ongoing marketing 10800, bookkeeping/professional support 4800 and cleaning/security/upkeep 6200. These are authored line allowances, not national averages or signed quotes. Check lease inclusions and avoid adding NNN charges again; major replacement, depreciation, financing and income tax remain separate.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Revenue (Year 3)
Years two through five hold the same mature basket, completed-order count and calendar constant in 2026 dollars; no inflation, growth or store expansion is assumed. Round each annual sales total once to whole USD. The basket averages two sold units at 16 USD net realization each; it excludes sales tax and is after discounts and expected sales returns. The target includes new and repeat orders once each. Industry and paid-product sources establish mechanisms only, never local demand or these selected values.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Sold goods, shrink, bags, returns handling and processing (Year 3)
Round 59% of this year's whole-dollar net sales once: selected landed sold-goods cost 54%, stock shrink/write-offs 1.5%, bags and incremental returns handling 0.5%, and effective processing 3%. Returned selling value is already deducted from revenue; salable returns reverse goods cost, and only unsalable loss enters shrink/write-offs. No duplicate deduction of refunded sales. Payment allowance bridges 90% card share, assumed 8% sales tax on taxable checkout amounts, and Square Free 2.6% plus 0.15 USD; actual basket, taxability, tender/plan and refunds require validation. The resulting 41% contribution is selected, not a quoted chain gross margin.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Paid owner, retail staff, employer costs and relief (Year 3)
Selected annual payroll 130000 USD includes owner-manager 52000 USD for 40 paid hours/week, lead 30 hours/week at 20 USD, and sales associate 30 hours/week at 18 USD, using 52 payroll weeks. Wage base 111280 USD plus selected 12% employer costs is 124633.60 USD, rounded to 124634; another 5366 USD funds paid relief/leave cover, including its employer costs. The national May 2025 retail-salesperson median is 17.03 USD/hour, not a local hiring quote. Federal FICA is only part of total employer cost. Calendar includes 35 owner shop-floor hours and five purchasing/admin hours; local overtime and leave compliance require review.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Occupancy, systems, insurance, marketing and recurring upkeep (Year 3)
Selected annual fixed overhead 80000 USD: occupancy 39000 (assumed 1300 sq ft times 30 USD/sq ft/year all-in cash rent and common-area charges), utilities/connectivity 8400, insurance 6000, POS/stock software 4800, ongoing marketing 10800, bookkeeping/professional support 4800 and cleaning/security/upkeep 6200. These are authored line allowances, not national averages or signed quotes. Check lease inclusions and avoid adding NNN charges again; major replacement, depreciation, financing and income tax remain separate.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Revenue (Year 4)
Years two through five hold the same mature basket, completed-order count and calendar constant in 2026 dollars; no inflation, growth or store expansion is assumed. Round each annual sales total once to whole USD. The basket averages two sold units at 16 USD net realization each; it excludes sales tax and is after discounts and expected sales returns. The target includes new and repeat orders once each. Industry and paid-product sources establish mechanisms only, never local demand or these selected values.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Sold goods, shrink, bags, returns handling and processing (Year 4)
Round 59% of this year's whole-dollar net sales once: selected landed sold-goods cost 54%, stock shrink/write-offs 1.5%, bags and incremental returns handling 0.5%, and effective processing 3%. Returned selling value is already deducted from revenue; salable returns reverse goods cost, and only unsalable loss enters shrink/write-offs. No duplicate deduction of refunded sales. Payment allowance bridges 90% card share, assumed 8% sales tax on taxable checkout amounts, and Square Free 2.6% plus 0.15 USD; actual basket, taxability, tender/plan and refunds require validation. The resulting 41% contribution is selected, not a quoted chain gross margin.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Paid owner, retail staff, employer costs and relief (Year 4)
Selected annual payroll 130000 USD includes owner-manager 52000 USD for 40 paid hours/week, lead 30 hours/week at 20 USD, and sales associate 30 hours/week at 18 USD, using 52 payroll weeks. Wage base 111280 USD plus selected 12% employer costs is 124633.60 USD, rounded to 124634; another 5366 USD funds paid relief/leave cover, including its employer costs. The national May 2025 retail-salesperson median is 17.03 USD/hour, not a local hiring quote. Federal FICA is only part of total employer cost. Calendar includes 35 owner shop-floor hours and five purchasing/admin hours; local overtime and leave compliance require review.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Occupancy, systems, insurance, marketing and recurring upkeep (Year 4)
Selected annual fixed overhead 80000 USD: occupancy 39000 (assumed 1300 sq ft times 30 USD/sq ft/year all-in cash rent and common-area charges), utilities/connectivity 8400, insurance 6000, POS/stock software 4800, ongoing marketing 10800, bookkeeping/professional support 4800 and cleaning/security/upkeep 6200. These are authored line allowances, not national averages or signed quotes. Check lease inclusions and avoid adding NNN charges again; major replacement, depreciation, financing and income tax remain separate.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Revenue (Year 5)
Years two through five hold the same mature basket, completed-order count and calendar constant in 2026 dollars; no inflation, growth or store expansion is assumed. Round each annual sales total once to whole USD. The basket averages two sold units at 16 USD net realization each; it excludes sales tax and is after discounts and expected sales returns. The target includes new and repeat orders once each. Industry and paid-product sources establish mechanisms only, never local demand or these selected values.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Sold goods, shrink, bags, returns handling and processing (Year 5)
Round 59% of this year's whole-dollar net sales once: selected landed sold-goods cost 54%, stock shrink/write-offs 1.5%, bags and incremental returns handling 0.5%, and effective processing 3%. Returned selling value is already deducted from revenue; salable returns reverse goods cost, and only unsalable loss enters shrink/write-offs. No duplicate deduction of refunded sales. Payment allowance bridges 90% card share, assumed 8% sales tax on taxable checkout amounts, and Square Free 2.6% plus 0.15 USD; actual basket, taxability, tender/plan and refunds require validation. The resulting 41% contribution is selected, not a quoted chain gross margin.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Paid owner, retail staff, employer costs and relief (Year 5)
Selected annual payroll 130000 USD includes owner-manager 52000 USD for 40 paid hours/week, lead 30 hours/week at 20 USD, and sales associate 30 hours/week at 18 USD, using 52 payroll weeks. Wage base 111280 USD plus selected 12% employer costs is 124633.60 USD, rounded to 124634; another 5366 USD funds paid relief/leave cover, including its employer costs. The national May 2025 retail-salesperson median is 17.03 USD/hour, not a local hiring quote. Federal FICA is only part of total employer cost. Calendar includes 35 owner shop-floor hours and five purchasing/admin hours; local overtime and leave compliance require review.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Occupancy, systems, insurance, marketing and recurring upkeep (Year 5)
Selected annual fixed overhead 80000 USD: occupancy 39000 (assumed 1300 sq ft times 30 USD/sq ft/year all-in cash rent and common-area charges), utilities/connectivity 8400, insurance 6000, POS/stock software 4800, ongoing marketing 10800, bookkeeping/professional support 4800 and cleaning/security/upkeep 6200. These are authored line allowances, not national averages or signed quotes. Check lease inclusions and avoid adding NNN charges again; major replacement, depreciation, financing and income tax remain separate.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Average net sales per completed retail order (base scenario) · Average net sales per completed retail order (lower sensitivity) · Average net sales per completed retail order (upper sensitivity)
Selected net basket 32 USD and 24–42 USD sensitivity bounds. Base averages two sold items at 16 USD net each after discounts and anticipated sales refunds, before payment fees; sales tax is excluded. Bounds are a practical input domain, not measured customer-spend percentiles. Category mix affects acquisition cost and contribution, so a basket change alone is a held-margin sensitivity, not an observed outcome.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Completed retail orders per day, including repeat buyers (base scenario) · Completed retail orders per day, including repeat buyers (lower sensitivity) · Completed retail orders per day, including repeat buyers (upper sensitivity)
Selected 60 completed daily orders including repeats, with 35–70 sensitivity bounds. Illustrative mature traffic bridge is 150 total store visits/day and 40% transaction conversion, including returning visitors; this is not the native workbook's new-buyer cohort input and is not verified demand. Over ten public hours/day base averages six orders/hour. The paid 100-hour weekly roster supplies 95 shop-floor hours plus five owner administration hours before relief. The independent workload stress also budgets unconverted shopper assistance and breaks; average rates are plausibility checks, not peak-service certification, and the upper domain requires particularly disciplined coverage.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Trading days per week (base scenario) · Trading days per week (lower sensitivity) · Trading days per week (upper sensitivity)
Selected six ten-hour public days weekly, with a five-day sensitivity and no assumed seventh day. Shared sales convention is 4.33 weeks/month, or 51.96 trading weeks/year; payroll uses 52 paid weeks. Actual holidays, breaks, receiving and peak coverage need a dated roster.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Monthly fixed operating costs
Selected monthly fixed 17500 USD equals annual paid payroll 130000 plus recurring overhead 80000 divided by twelve. Owner work is paid once before surplus. The roster is held constant in the tested activity range and must be increased if measured customer assistance or receiving load exceeds coverage.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Contribution margin
Selected 0.41 contribution fraction equals one minus 0.54 landed sold goods, 0.015 shrink/write-offs, 0.005 bags/returns handling and 0.03 processing allowance. Product gross margin before those additional variable items is a different metric. Chain cost inclusions and owned-brand advantages differ; no independent-store industry-average margin is asserted.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Opening sales as a share of mature volume · Monthly increase toward mature volume · Forecast horizon (months)
Authored ramp starts at 60% of mature orders, adds eight percentage points monthly capped at full volume, and displays 24 months. It is a selected launch path, not a sampled beauty-store cohort or promised break-even date. Year-one forecast uses exactly its first twelve months; a slower ramp and adverse stock payments are tested privately and in the article.