Esthetics & Skincare Business input evidence register
45 financial inputs with their assumptions, calculation bases and cited sources.
Read the supported claim, observation period, geography and units together. A source access date records when it was consulted. A model assumption identifies a selected amount or target; a calculated result follows from those inputs and does not establish observed demand or a quoted opening budget.
Case updated October 6, 2026. These notes accompany the complete case methodology and source register.
Dataset use notice: no Creative Commons license or DOI is asserted. Referenced material remains subject to its publisher’s terms.
These notes explain the opening budget, annual forecast and calculator assumptions. Linked sources provide the support described in each note; they do not necessarily confirm the selected amounts. Check scenario assumptions against local quotes and operating records.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Total opening budget · Lower opening budget · Upper opening budget
Authored opening allocations: base 125000 USD is the sum of eight canonical items. Lower 95000 uses fitted premises, simpler reusable equipment and 55000 reserve; higher 185000 uses more site work, a larger equipment basket and 75000 reserve. Neither endpoint is a national percentile or a signed bid. All three retain two licensed service providers and the same basic nonmedical menu. Detailed line-by-line endpoint allocations are in the private calculations record.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Compatible-site fit-out, sink, finishes and access work
Authored 18000 USD allowance for compatible-site partitions, sink/plumbing, cleanable finishes, lighting and access work. Texas supports required facilities, not this site quote. A licensed layout/permit review and coordinated local bids replace the allowance.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Two-room equipment, storage, linen and furniture
Authored 9000 USD complete loose-equipment basket: two adjustable facial beds, stools, task/magnifying lamps, carts, nonmedical surface-care tools, towels/linen, clean storage and furniture. Direct supplier listings display a stationary bed at 299 USD, hydraulic bed at 549 USD and rolling magnifying lamp at 129 USD. Two hydraulic beds and two lamps would total 1356 USD before unverified shipping, tax, placement, assembly and installation. Those anchors support ordinary component availability, not the complete allocation, suitability or a package quote. No medical treatment device or expired coupon is assumed; the rest of the local landed basket is unquoted.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Lease deposit and pre-opening occupancy
Authored 7500 USD opening cash use: 5000 lease deposit plus 2500 pre-opening occupancy/charges before trading. This is separate from recurring trading-period rent. Broad retail asking rents do not verify a deposit or this lease.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Initial treatment and retail stock at cost
Authored 5500 USD opening inventory at cost: 3000 treatment/backbar and 2500 limited retail. Inventory balances and replenishment belong in the cash schedule; consumed goods are charged once in operating cost. No vendor wholesale terms or sell-through history is verified.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Professional, permit, insurance and booking setup
Authored 6000 USD allowance for establishment/business setup, legal/accounting, permit coordination, pre-opening insurance and booking/site setup. Texas application fees provide a limited rule example, not this combined allowance. Both estheticians are assumed already licensed; initial schooling and prequalification income are excluded.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Pre-opening labor, training and launch marketing
Authored 6000 USD pre-opening labor, procedure training and launch marketing before the first operating month. No same-period labor is repeated in operating payroll. National occupational wages do not verify this opening allowance.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Opening contingency
Authored 8000 USD opening contingency for unquoted site and equipment variation. It is separate from operating reserve and is not a second payroll or operating-loss charge.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Operating cash reserve
Authored 65000 USD operating reserve held as opening cash. Compare it with the independently derived peak cumulative ramp deficit and separate slower/higher-cost downside. Reserve is not a P&L expense or a guarantee; debt, tax, approval delays, deposit/refund liabilities and processor delays are not explicitly funded.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Revenue (Year 1)
Authored annual scenario: Year one sums twelve monthly ramp revenues, each equal to 132 USD realized visit yield × 8 mature completed visits/day × 5 days/week × 4.33 weeks/month × the monthly completion share. Shares start at 0.40 and add 0.05, capped at one. This is a selected completion path, not observed bookings or market growth. Round unrounded annual revenue half up once to whole USD. The direct offers frame price variation, not the selected menu or forecast.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Treatment supplies, retail goods and payment charges (Year 1)
Authored annual direct/variable cost is 15% of unrounded annual scenario revenue, rounded half up once. At the base yield this reconciles to selected 11.68 USD treatment consumables, disposables and variable linen cost, 3.50 USD expected retail goods cost and 4.62 USD blended payment allowance per visit. No paid labor is deducted again here. Later annual cases hold the percentage for simplicity; pure discount sensitivities instead hold physical consumables fixed and change payment fees. No observed product-cost or retail margin benchmark is claimed.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Owner, employee, employer allowance and licensed relief (Year 1)
Authored payroll: owner labor equivalent 60000 USD plus employee 26 USD/hour × 40 paid hours/week × 52 paid weeks gives a wage base of 114080 USD. Selected 20% employer-cost allowance plus 200 replacement hours at 30 USD in total budgeted cost per hour yields 142896 USD annually in years one to three. Years four and five compound 4% from that unrounded base before whole-USD rounding. Both service and nonservice work are paid; relief provision is not a verified available substitute. BLS median and IRS statutory components do not verify the local offer, full burden or entity-specific owner tax treatment.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Premises, booking, marketing and operating overhead (Year 1)
Authored annual overhead totals 55200 USD: 25000 base rent (about 1000 sq. ft. × selected 25 USD/sq. ft./year), 3000 property charges, 3600 utilities, 2400 insurance, 2400 booking/communications, 9600 marketing, 1800 upkeep, 2400 professional fees, 3600 general cleaning and 1400 other operating costs. Years one to three hold this base; later years compound 3% before rounding. Variable treatment laundry is already in direct cost. CBRE supplies broad asking-rent context only; local lease, charges and supplier terms remain unquoted.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Revenue (Year 2)
Authored annual scenario: Years two and three each use 132 USD × 8 completed studio visits/day × 5 trading days/week × 4.33 weeks/month × 12. Weighted facial yield is 125 USD; expected attached retail is 7 USD/visit, counted once. Selected volume and retail attachment are not observed demand. Round unrounded annual revenue half up once to whole USD. The direct offers frame price variation, not the selected menu or forecast.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Treatment supplies, retail goods and payment charges (Year 2)
Authored annual direct/variable cost is 15% of unrounded annual scenario revenue, rounded half up once. At the base yield this reconciles to selected 11.68 USD treatment consumables, disposables and variable linen cost, 3.50 USD expected retail goods cost and 4.62 USD blended payment allowance per visit. No paid labor is deducted again here. Later annual cases hold the percentage for simplicity; pure discount sensitivities instead hold physical consumables fixed and change payment fees. No observed product-cost or retail margin benchmark is claimed.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Owner, employee, employer allowance and licensed relief (Year 2)
Authored payroll: owner labor equivalent 60000 USD plus employee 26 USD/hour × 40 paid hours/week × 52 paid weeks gives a wage base of 114080 USD. Selected 20% employer-cost allowance plus 200 replacement hours × 30 USD yields 142896 USD annually in years one to three. Years four and five compound 4% from that unrounded base before whole-USD rounding. Both service and nonservice work are paid; relief provision is not a verified available substitute. BLS median and IRS statutory components do not verify the local offer, full burden or entity-specific owner tax treatment.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Premises, booking, marketing and operating overhead (Year 2)
Authored annual overhead totals 55200 USD: 25000 base rent (about 1000 sq. ft. × selected 25 USD/sq. ft./year), 3000 property charges, 3600 utilities, 2400 insurance, 2400 booking/communications, 9600 marketing, 1800 upkeep, 2400 professional fees, 3600 general cleaning and 1400 other operating costs. Years one to three hold this base; later years compound 3% before rounding. Variable treatment laundry is already in direct cost. CBRE supplies broad asking-rent context only; local lease, charges and supplier terms remain unquoted.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Revenue (Year 3)
Authored annual scenario: Years two and three each use 132 USD × 8 completed studio visits/day × 5 trading days/week × 4.33 weeks/month × 12. Weighted facial yield is 125 USD; expected attached retail is 7 USD/visit, counted once. Selected volume and retail attachment are not observed demand. Round unrounded annual revenue half up once to whole USD. The direct offers frame price variation, not the selected menu or forecast.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Treatment supplies, retail goods and payment charges (Year 3)
Authored annual direct/variable cost is 15% of unrounded annual scenario revenue, rounded half up once. At the base yield this reconciles to selected 11.68 USD treatment consumables, disposables and variable linen cost, 3.50 USD expected retail goods cost and 4.62 USD blended payment allowance per visit. No paid labor is deducted again here. Later annual cases hold the percentage for simplicity; pure discount sensitivities instead hold physical consumables fixed and change payment fees. No observed product-cost or retail margin benchmark is claimed.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Owner, employee, employer allowance and licensed relief (Year 3)
Authored payroll: owner labor equivalent 60000 USD plus employee 26 USD/hour × 40 paid hours/week × 52 paid weeks gives a wage base of 114080 USD. Selected 20% employer-cost allowance plus 200 replacement hours × 30 USD yields 142896 USD annually in years one to three. Years four and five compound 4% from that unrounded base before whole-USD rounding. Both service and nonservice work are paid; relief provision is not a verified available substitute. BLS median and IRS statutory components do not verify the local offer, full burden or entity-specific owner tax treatment.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Premises, booking, marketing and operating overhead (Year 3)
Authored annual overhead totals 55200 USD: 25000 base rent (about 1000 sq. ft. × selected 25 USD/sq. ft./year), 3000 property charges, 3600 utilities, 2400 insurance, 2400 booking/communications, 9600 marketing, 1800 upkeep, 2400 professional fees, 3600 general cleaning and 1400 other operating costs. Years one to three hold this base; later years compound 3% before rounding. Variable treatment laundry is already in direct cost. CBRE supplies broad asking-rent context only; local lease, charges and supplier terms remain unquoted.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Revenue (Year 4)
Authored annual scenario: Year four selects realized yield 136 USD and average 8.5 completed visits/day, with the same five-day calendar and 4.33 convention. The unchanged offered calendar can carry this mix under the selected effective completion assumption. Price and volume changes are authored assumptions, not a sector growth rate. Round unrounded annual revenue half up once to whole USD. The direct offers frame price variation, not the selected menu or forecast.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Treatment supplies, retail goods and payment charges (Year 4)
Authored annual direct/variable cost is 15% of unrounded annual scenario revenue, rounded half up once. At the base yield this reconciles to selected 11.68 USD treatment consumables, disposables and variable linen cost, 3.50 USD expected retail goods cost and 4.62 USD blended payment allowance per visit. No paid labor is deducted again here. Later annual cases hold the percentage for simplicity; pure discount sensitivities instead hold physical consumables fixed and change payment fees. No observed product-cost or retail margin benchmark is claimed.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Owner, employee, employer allowance and licensed relief (Year 4)
Authored payroll: owner labor equivalent 60000 USD plus employee 26 USD/hour × 40 paid hours/week × 52 paid weeks gives a wage base of 114080 USD. Selected 20% employer-cost allowance plus 200 replacement hours × 30 USD yields 142896 USD annually in years one to three. Years four and five compound 4% from that unrounded base before whole-USD rounding. Both service and nonservice work are paid; relief provision is not a verified available substitute. BLS median and IRS statutory components do not verify the local offer, full burden or entity-specific owner tax treatment.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Premises, booking, marketing and operating overhead (Year 4)
Authored annual overhead totals 55200 USD: 25000 base rent (about 1000 sq. ft. × selected 25 USD/sq. ft./year), 3000 property charges, 3600 utilities, 2400 insurance, 2400 booking/communications, 9600 marketing, 1800 upkeep, 2400 professional fees, 3600 general cleaning and 1400 other operating costs. Years one to three hold this base; later years compound 3% before rounding. Variable treatment laundry is already in direct cost. CBRE supplies broad asking-rent context only; local lease, charges and supplier terms remain unquoted.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Revenue (Year 5)
Authored annual scenario: Year five selects realized yield 140 USD and average 9 completed visits/day, with the same calendar and capacity. No second location, medical treatment, membership income or independent retail stream is added. Actual sold mix and duration must still fit the roster. Round unrounded annual revenue half up once to whole USD. The direct offers frame price variation, not the selected menu or forecast.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Treatment supplies, retail goods and payment charges (Year 5)
Authored annual direct/variable cost is 15% of unrounded annual scenario revenue, rounded half up once. At the base yield this reconciles to selected 11.68 USD treatment consumables, disposables and variable linen cost, 3.50 USD expected retail goods cost and 4.62 USD blended payment allowance per visit. No paid labor is deducted again here. Later annual cases hold the percentage for simplicity; pure discount sensitivities instead hold physical consumables fixed and change payment fees. No observed product-cost or retail margin benchmark is claimed.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Owner, employee, employer allowance and licensed relief (Year 5)
Authored payroll: owner labor equivalent 60000 USD plus employee 26 USD/hour × 40 paid hours/week × 52 paid weeks gives a wage base of 114080 USD. Selected 20% employer-cost allowance plus 200 replacement hours × 30 USD yields 142896 USD annually in years one to three. Years four and five compound 4% from that unrounded base before whole-USD rounding. Both service and nonservice work are paid; relief provision is not a verified available substitute. BLS median and IRS statutory components do not verify the local offer, full burden or entity-specific owner tax treatment.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Premises, booking, marketing and operating overhead (Year 5)
Authored annual overhead totals 55200 USD: 25000 base rent (about 1000 sq. ft. × selected 25 USD/sq. ft./year), 3000 property charges, 3600 utilities, 2400 insurance, 2400 booking/communications, 9600 marketing, 1800 upkeep, 2400 professional fees, 3600 general cleaning and 1400 other operating costs. Years one to three hold this base; later years compound 3% before rounding. Variable treatment laundry is already in direct cost. CBRE supplies broad asking-rent context only; local lease, charges and supplier terms remain unquoted.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Realized revenue per completed visit, including limited retail (base scenario) · Realized revenue per completed visit, including limited retail (lower sensitivity) · Realized revenue per completed visit, including limited retail (upper sensitivity)
Authored realized-yield range 110/132/160 USD per completed visit, after facial discounts/refunds and including attached retail, excluding tips and collected sales tax. Base menu assumes 20% at 90 USD, 60% at 125 USD and 20% at 160 USD; expected retail equals 20% buyers × 35 USD basket. These shares and endpoints are scenarios, not operator medians. Low models a weaker-price/mix catchment; high requires independently supported premium realized prices. Higher ticket does not automatically keep the same service duration or variable-cost percentage.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Completed visits per day across both estheticians (base scenario) · Completed visits per day across both estheticians (lower sensitivity) · Completed visits per day across both estheticians (upper sensitivity)
Authored completed studio-wide counts: 5/8/10 per trading day, never per esthetician. Owner has 30 offered block hours plus 10 other paid hours weekly; employee has 35 offered block hours plus 5 other paid hours. The assumed weighted full block is 75 minutes, including turnover, so physical offered capacity is 52 reservations/week. At selected 90% effective completion after suitable refills, usable completed capacity is 46.8/week; base is 40/week. Upper 50 completions/week requires at least 96.15% effective completion or a changed funded calendar. It is physically possible but leaves little gap buffer. Sources describe services/duties, not measured completion or these time allocations.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Trading days per week (base scenario) · Trading days per week (lower sensitivity) · Trading days per week (upper sensitivity)
Authored five-day base/upper and four-day lower schedule. Existing paid weekly roster stays committed in the simple sensitivity. Maximum slider combination is 10 completed visits/day × 5 days, within 52 physical full blocks but above the selected 90% effective-completion case. The shared 4.33-month convention yields 51.96 annualized trading weeks; wages fund 52 paid weeks. Actual holidays and leave need a dated calendar.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Monthly fixed operating costs
Authored fixed monthly cost is (142896 annual payroll + 55200 annual overhead) / 12 = 16508 USD. Owner, employee nonservice duties and relief provision appear once. All operating amounts are selected allowances. The proxy excludes depreciation, interest, income tax, equipment replacement investment and distributions.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Contribution margin
Authored base contribution fraction is 0.85, one minus selected 15% variable cost. At 132 USD/visit it reconciles to 19.80 USD direct cost: 11.68 treatment/variable linen, 3.50 expected retail goods and 4.62 selected processing. Processing equals an assumed 3.5% blended allowance; actual percentage-plus-fixed fees and channel mix differ. Paid provider labor is fixed payroll. Discount cases recalculate contribution because physical products do not automatically become cheaper.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Opening sales as a share of mature volume · Monthly increase toward mature volume · Forecast horizon (months)
Authored completion ramp begins at 40% of mature volume, adds five percentage points monthly and inspects 24 months. It is not a measured customer acquisition, return, cancellation or seasonality pattern. Full share is capped at one. Private calculations compare cumulative losses, the opening reserve and a slower higher-cost stress. Monthly average fractional visits represent a forecast over many days, not partial appointments.