Flower Shop input evidence register
45 financial inputs with their assumptions, calculation bases and cited sources.
Read the supported claim, observation period, geography and units together. A source access date records when it was consulted. A model assumption identifies a selected amount or target; a calculated result follows from those inputs and does not establish observed demand or a quoted opening budget.
Case updated October 16, 2026. These notes accompany the complete case methodology and source register.
Dataset use notice: no Creative Commons license or DOI is asserted. Referenced material remains subject to its publisher’s terms.
These notes explain the opening budget, annual forecast and calculator assumptions. Linked sources provide the support described in each note; they do not necessarily confirm the selected amounts. Check scenario assumptions against local quotes and operating records.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Total opening budget · Lower opening budget · Upper opening budget
Selected opening scopes, not observed U.S. averages. Base 134000 USD is the sum of eight uses. Low 88000 USD uses 18000 shop work, 8000 installed cooling, 8000 fixtures/tools/POS, 6000 deposits/setup, 8000 stock, 6000 pre-opening, 28000 reserve and 6000 contingency in a smaller fitted unit. High 196000 USD uses 44000, 22000, 18000, 14000, 18000, 14000, 50000 and 16000 respectively for a less-fitted site, larger cooler, deeper stock and more cash. These are different project scopes rather than statistical ranges.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Shop refresh, utilities and processing area
Selected 28000 USD: cosmetic retail work and lighting 14000, processing/cleaning area and water 8000, design/layout and ordinary utility adjustments 6000. Excludes refrigeration installation included in the next line. No contractor quote or jurisdiction-specific compliance is claimed.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Installed floral refrigeration
Selected 14000 USD: configured floral cooler allowance 10500, freight/handling 1000, installation and electrical allowance 1800, racks/temperature monitoring 700. Vendor starting price is 10295 USD, not an installed quote; options, tax, freight and site work need verification.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Work benches, displays, tools and POS
Selected 12000 USD: work benches/storage 4000, displays/checkout furniture 3500, POS/security 2000, buckets/tools/wrapping equipment 2500. Standard reusable equipment; no supplier quotation is claimed.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Deposits, permissions and professional setup
Selected 9000 USD: lease and utility deposits 6500 plus permissions/professional setup allowance 2500. Deposits are not recurring rent. The exact jurisdiction and lease inclusions are unverified.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Opening flowers, plants and hardgoods
Selected 12000 USD opening inventory: initial flowers and greens 3500, bought-in plants 2500, containers and other hardgoods 6000. Fresh stock is ordered in stages near opening, not stored indefinitely. This asset is distinct from reserve cash and ordinary replenishment expense.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Pre-opening labor and launch
Selected 9000 USD: pre-opening paid training/setup 5000, launch marketing and order setup 2500, initial administrative/insurance setup 1500. These uses precede the first forecast trading month; recurring payroll and overhead begin with that month.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Operating cash reserve
Selected 40000 USD liquid operating reserve after setup and opening inventory. Shared ramp calculation gives an early operating trough of approximately 17659 USD before additional holiday payments. An illustrative incremental prepaid 18000 USD holiday buy leaves approximately 4341 USD at that trough; no receipts or supplier credit are assumed to rescue it.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Opening contingency
Selected 10000 USD opening contingency for unquoted setup variation. It is not counted a second time as operating reserve, and drawing it reduces the remaining opening contingency.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Revenue (Years 1–5)
Authored net-sales path. Mature month = 65 USD/order × 26 completed orders/day × 6 days/week × 4.33 weeks/month. Year 1 sums monthly shares 0.45, 0.51, 0.57, 0.63, 0.69, 0.75, 0.81, 0.87, 0.93, 0.99, 1 and 1; later years hold mature sales constant. Round each annual input to whole USD only at storage. Vendor arrangement prices are examples, not an observed weighted basket. No automatic growth, delivery income, subscription commitment or tax collected for government is included.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Flowers, hardgoods, waste and order-linked costs (Years 1–5)
Selected variable cost is 43 percent of base net sales: usable flower/plant/container materials and inbound freight 36 percent, normal unrecovered spoilage 3 percent, incremental packing and order supplies 0.8 percent, and blended payment allowance 3.2 percent. Wholesale recipes and loss rates are unverified assumptions; NC State supports the preservation mechanism, not a loss percentage. Refunds are already removed from net selling value and are not deducted again here. This line includes order-linked expenses for calculator reconciliation. The funding calendar keeps inventory purchase timing separate. Extra waste changes the ratio; a lower price on the same materials does not proportionally reduce their dollar cost.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Paid owner, floral team and seasonal cover (Years 1–5)
Full paid roster from launch: owner-manager/designer 52000 USD/year for a selected 45-hour working week, lead designer 40 hours/week × 52 paid weeks × 21 USD = 43680, retail assistant 30 × 52 × 18 USD = 28080, and 400 seasonal/relief hours × 20 USD = 8000. Base pay totals 131760; selected 15 percent employer cost allowance adds 19764, producing 151524 USD/year. IRS employer Social Security/Medicare supports only part of that allowance. Approximately 240 seasonal hours support selected leave/absence, 160 peak hours support holidays. Owner/entity pay, local wages, overtime, insurance, benefits and legal coverage require validation; no unpaid owner labor is used.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Lease, cooling, systems and recurring overhead (Years 1–5)
Selected recurring overhead 5170 USD/month, 62040 USD/year: lease/inclusions 3000, utilities and cooling/water 600, insurance 250, software/communications 220, recurring marketing 650, maintenance 250 and professional/admin 200. Assumes roughly 1100 sq ft and no delivery fleet. Not a local lease or insurance quotation. Ordinary maintenance is included; replacement capex, debt service and income tax are outside EBITDA.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Average net completed-order value (base scenario) · Average net completed-order value (lower sensitivity) · Average net completed-order value (upper sensitivity)
Selected net order basket 65 USD, sensitivity bounds 55–80 USD. A single Seattle florist menu supports real arrangement choices at comparable price points, not the blended U.S. basket. Illustrative order mix: 50 percent designed arrangements at 85 USD, 30 percent wrapped bouquets at 50 USD and 20 percent plant orders at 37.50 USD equals 65 USD. Prices are realized net of discounts and expected refunds and exclude sales tax; stem complexity and mix must be checked separately.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Completed retail orders per trading day (base scenario) · Completed retail orders per trading day (lower sensitivity) · Completed retail orders per trading day (upper sensitivity)
Selected 26 completed orders/trading day with 18–30 sensitivities, not measured local demand. All repeats are inside these orders. Workload illustration: mix above assumes 18 design minutes per routine arrangement, 6 per wrapped bouquet and 5 per plant order, weighted 11.8 minutes/order. Base weekly 156 orders use 30.68 design hours against selected 37 paid design hours after separate counter, care, management and paid-break allowances; high 180 orders use 35.4. More complex designs require lower throughput or extra paid labor. These are timing assumptions, not BLS productivity data or a holiday capacity guarantee.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Trading days per week (base scenario) · Trading days per week (lower sensitivity) · Trading days per week (upper sensitivity)
Selected six trading days of eight retail hours, lower test five days, upper six. The calculator uses 4.33 weeks/month, or 51.96 trading weeks/year. Payroll uses 52 paid weeks with seasonal leave cover; this distinction is intentional. Holiday closures, pickup windows and staffing must be placed on an actual calendar.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Monthly fixed operating costs
17797 USD/month equals full annual payroll 151524/12 = 12627 plus recurring overhead 62040/12 = 5170. Fixed labor is not omitted during the ramp. Within the stated ordinary workload no extra shift is assumed; additional peak work beyond funded cover changes the fixed-cost regime.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Contribution margin
Selected 0.57 retained contribution equals one minus the 0.43 variable cost allowance. It funds the paid team and recurring overhead and is not EBITDA, net income or a measured florist margin. The illustrative sensitivities change unrecovered waste or hold physical costs in dollars when repricing.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Opening sales as a share of mature volume · Monthly increase toward mature volume · Forecast horizon (months)
Selected opening share 0.45 and monthly increase 0.06 capped at full activity, displayed over 24 months. No source establishes this ramp. It is an explicit testable launch assumption. Year 1 and mature annual revenue/operating result reconcile to the monthly calculation within whole-dollar rounding; holiday seasonality and supplier timing require separate schedules.