Liquor Store input evidence register
45 financial inputs with their assumptions, calculation bases and cited sources.
Read the supported claim, observation period, geography and units together. A source access date records when it was consulted. A model assumption identifies a selected amount or target; a calculated result follows from those inputs and does not establish observed demand or a quoted opening budget.
Case updated October 8, 2026. These notes accompany the complete case methodology and source register.
Dataset use notice: no Creative Commons license or DOI is asserted. Referenced material remains subject to its publisher’s terms.
These notes explain the opening budget, annual forecast and calculator assumptions. Linked sources provide the support described in each note; they do not necessarily confirm the selected amounts. Check scenario assumptions against local quotes and operating records.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Total opening budget · Lower opening budget · Upper opening budget
Authored low/base/high opening scopes reconcile to 230000/365000/560000 USD in the private calculation ledger. Low: about 1200 sq ft fitted premises, reused equipment, narrower merchandise and phased paid coverage; base: 1600 sq ft selective works and a broader funded range; high: about 2200 sq ft with more work, fixture capacity, stock and reserve. These are whole-project scopes, not national observed bounds. Each assumes obtainable permission without scarce-license market acquisition; real estate, going-concern goodwill and that acquisition price are excluded. Local legal costs can exceed any allowance and must change the project before commitment.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Tenant fit-out and electrical work
Selected 45000 USD for selective tenant work, electrical capacity/branch circuits, finishes and inspection-related adjustments at an already-usable retail unit. No structural shell conversion, landlord contribution or completed installed quote is assumed; obtain a work/inclusion matrix.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Shelving, counters and refrigeration
Selected 35000 USD installed allowance: 15000 shelving/displays, 8000 plug-in beer merchandisers and placement, 12000 checkout/secure/backroom fixtures. Four observed 1679 USD regular-price coolers total 6716 USD equipment-only; the balance is an authored tax/placement/electrical allowance, not a vendor package quote. Installation, access and capacity need verification.
- Model assumption
Applies to: POS, stock controls and security
Selected 12000 USD for POS/barcode hardware, stock setup, network, cameras, alarm and installation. This is a store-specific allowance requiring security/system quotes; recurring subscriptions remain in overhead.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Deposits, applications and professional setup
Selected 20000 USD combines 10000 refundable occupancy/utility deposits and 10000 original-application, local-permit and professional setup allowances. Deposits are assets, not duplicated rent. This is conditional on actual local permission and excludes purchased scarce-license market value. California's 2026 original off-sale priority fee alone can exceed the selected application allowance, illustrating a required scope revision rather than a covered national fee.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Opening merchandise at landed cost
Selected 150000 USD landed opening merchandise: 75000 spirits, 50000 wine and 25000 packaged beer. Categories are an authored opening purchase allocation, not national sales shares, a supplier quote or SKU count. Initial assortment can differ from sold-unit mix. Verify lawful suppliers, pack quantities, invoice costs and expected sell-through.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Pre-opening paid training and launch
Selected 18000 USD for pre-opening paid staff training/setup 12000, launch advertising 4000 and initial consumables 2000. The paid pre-opening period precedes the operating forecast, which separately pays its complete roster from trading launch; no double count of operating-month wages is intended.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Installed-work contingency
Selected 20000 USD contingency for unresolved installed-work and setup costs. It is not ordinary operating cash, a license-acquisition estimate or a price-range statistic. Reallocate only against actual signed scope and retain the separate operating reserve.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Operating and supplier-timing cash
Selected 65000 USD unrestricted opening operating/supplier-timing reserve after all other uses, including opening stock, are funded. The shared ramp's cumulative operating-deficit trough and the separate extra-stock stress are calculated privately and in the article. Supplier credit is not assumed. Slower ramp and extra stock exceed this amount; taxes, finance, replacement and withdrawals are excluded and need additional cash schedules.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Revenue (Year 1)
Authored first-year revenue is the sum of the shared first twelve monthly ramp amounts: net basket 40 USD times 130 complete daily orders times six trading days times 4.33 weeks/month, multiplied by the monthly capped shares. Start share is 0.55 and step 0.05; round the annual total once to whole USD. The basket is 1.6 merchandise units per order at 25 USD weighted net realization, after discounts/expected sales refunds and excluding sales tax. Orders include new and repeat purchases once. No source measures this local target.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Sold goods, stock loss and selling costs (Year 1)
Round 79% of this year's whole-dollar net sales once: selected landed sold-goods cost 75%, shrink/breakage/write-offs 1%, selling bags/consumables 0.2%, and effective payment allowance 2.8%. Net revenue already deducts refunded selling value; salable returns reverse merchandise cost, while only unsalable loss enters the loss allowance. The payment bridge assumes 80% card share and 8% tax on the taxable checkout value with the published Square Free in-person structure, then retains a cushion for actual mix/rounding. This selected contribution is not a vendor or industry-average profit margin; verify invoices, losses, tender mix and contract.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Paid owner, retail team and employer costs (Year 1)
Selected 160000 USD annual payroll: owner-manager 60000 USD for 40 paid hours/week (30 on site including one opening/closing hour, 10 administration), lead 35 hours/week at 24 USD and associate 35 hours/week at 19 USD for 52 payroll weeks. Wage base 138260 USD times selected 12% employer cost is 154851.20 USD, rounded to 154851; 5149 USD additional employer-inclusive relief/leave cover reconciles to 160000. The regular roster gives 100 paid on-site hours: 94 during 60 public hours and six for opening/closing outside public windows; owner administration adds ten paid hours. Relief is separately funded. BLS May 2025 national 17.03 USD/hour median is context, not a local liquor-store quote. Federal FICA is only part of employer cost; local overtime, breaks, leave, insurance and training need review.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Premises and other recurring overhead (Year 1)
Selected 110000 USD annual recurring overhead: all-in occupancy 57600 (assumed 1600 sq ft at 36 USD/sq ft/year inclusive of stated common-area charges), utilities/connectivity 12000, insurance 7000, POS/stock systems 4800, bookkeeping/professional support 4800, ongoing marketing 12000, cleaning/security/upkeep 9000 and annualized permit/renewal allowance 2800. These are authored line allowances, not national averages or signed quotes. Verify lease inclusions without adding NNN twice; no major replacement, depreciation, interest or income tax is included.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Revenue (Year 2)
Years two through five hold mature basket 40 USD, 130 completed orders per day, six trading days and 4.33 weeks/month constant in 2026 dollars; round each annual total once. No inflation, growth, event or location expansion is assumed. The unit/basket and paid-calendar bridge is the same as year one; original retailer evidence establishes only the merchandise mechanism, not local demand.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Sold goods, stock loss and selling costs (Year 2)
Round 79% of this year's whole-dollar net sales once: selected landed sold-goods cost 75%, shrink/breakage/write-offs 1%, selling bags/consumables 0.2%, and effective payment allowance 2.8%. Net revenue already deducts refunded selling value; salable returns reverse merchandise cost, while only unsalable loss enters the loss allowance. The payment bridge assumes 80% card share and 8% tax on the taxable checkout value with the published Square Free in-person structure, then retains a cushion for actual mix/rounding. This selected contribution is not a vendor or industry-average profit margin; verify invoices, losses, tender mix and contract.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Paid owner, retail team and employer costs (Year 2)
Selected 160000 USD annual payroll: owner-manager 60000 USD for 40 paid hours/week (30 on site including one opening/closing hour, 10 administration), lead 35 hours/week at 24 USD and associate 35 hours/week at 19 USD for 52 payroll weeks. Wage base 138260 USD times selected 12% employer cost is 154851.20 USD, rounded to 154851; 5149 USD additional employer-inclusive relief/leave cover reconciles to 160000. The regular roster gives 100 paid on-site hours: 94 during 60 public hours and six for opening/closing outside public windows; owner administration adds ten paid hours. Relief is separately funded. BLS May 2025 national 17.03 USD/hour median is context, not a local liquor-store quote. Federal FICA is only part of employer cost; local overtime, breaks, leave, insurance and training need review.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Premises and other recurring overhead (Year 2)
Selected 110000 USD annual recurring overhead: all-in occupancy 57600 (assumed 1600 sq ft at 36 USD/sq ft/year inclusive of stated common-area charges), utilities/connectivity 12000, insurance 7000, POS/stock systems 4800, bookkeeping/professional support 4800, ongoing marketing 12000, cleaning/security/upkeep 9000 and annualized permit/renewal allowance 2800. These are authored line allowances, not national averages or signed quotes. Verify lease inclusions without adding NNN twice; no major replacement, depreciation, interest or income tax is included.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Revenue (Year 3)
Years two through five hold mature basket 40 USD, 130 completed orders per day, six trading days and 4.33 weeks/month constant in 2026 dollars; round each annual total once. No inflation, growth, event or location expansion is assumed. The unit/basket and paid-calendar bridge is the same as year one; original retailer evidence establishes only the merchandise mechanism, not local demand.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Sold goods, stock loss and selling costs (Year 3)
Round 79% of this year's whole-dollar net sales once: selected landed sold-goods cost 75%, shrink/breakage/write-offs 1%, selling bags/consumables 0.2%, and effective payment allowance 2.8%. Net revenue already deducts refunded selling value; salable returns reverse merchandise cost, while only unsalable loss enters the loss allowance. The payment bridge assumes 80% card share and 8% tax on the taxable checkout value with the published Square Free in-person structure, then retains a cushion for actual mix/rounding. This selected contribution is not a vendor or industry-average profit margin; verify invoices, losses, tender mix and contract.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Paid owner, retail team and employer costs (Year 3)
Selected 160000 USD annual payroll: owner-manager 60000 USD for 40 paid hours/week (30 on site including one opening/closing hour, 10 administration), lead 35 hours/week at 24 USD and associate 35 hours/week at 19 USD for 52 payroll weeks. Wage base 138260 USD times selected 12% employer cost is 154851.20 USD, rounded to 154851; 5149 USD additional employer-inclusive relief/leave cover reconciles to 160000. The regular roster gives 100 paid on-site hours: 94 during 60 public hours and six for opening/closing outside public windows; owner administration adds ten paid hours. Relief is separately funded. BLS May 2025 national 17.03 USD/hour median is context, not a local liquor-store quote. Federal FICA is only part of employer cost; local overtime, breaks, leave, insurance and training need review.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Premises and other recurring overhead (Year 3)
Selected 110000 USD annual recurring overhead: all-in occupancy 57600 (assumed 1600 sq ft at 36 USD/sq ft/year inclusive of stated common-area charges), utilities/connectivity 12000, insurance 7000, POS/stock systems 4800, bookkeeping/professional support 4800, ongoing marketing 12000, cleaning/security/upkeep 9000 and annualized permit/renewal allowance 2800. These are authored line allowances, not national averages or signed quotes. Verify lease inclusions without adding NNN twice; no major replacement, depreciation, interest or income tax is included.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Revenue (Year 4)
Years two through five hold mature basket 40 USD, 130 completed orders per day, six trading days and 4.33 weeks/month constant in 2026 dollars; round each annual total once. No inflation, growth, event or location expansion is assumed. The unit/basket and paid-calendar bridge is the same as year one; original retailer evidence establishes only the merchandise mechanism, not local demand.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Sold goods, stock loss and selling costs (Year 4)
Round 79% of this year's whole-dollar net sales once: selected landed sold-goods cost 75%, shrink/breakage/write-offs 1%, selling bags/consumables 0.2%, and effective payment allowance 2.8%. Net revenue already deducts refunded selling value; salable returns reverse merchandise cost, while only unsalable loss enters the loss allowance. The payment bridge assumes 80% card share and 8% tax on the taxable checkout value with the published Square Free in-person structure, then retains a cushion for actual mix/rounding. This selected contribution is not a vendor or industry-average profit margin; verify invoices, losses, tender mix and contract.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Paid owner, retail team and employer costs (Year 4)
Selected 160000 USD annual payroll: owner-manager 60000 USD for 40 paid hours/week (30 on site including one opening/closing hour, 10 administration), lead 35 hours/week at 24 USD and associate 35 hours/week at 19 USD for 52 payroll weeks. Wage base 138260 USD times selected 12% employer cost is 154851.20 USD, rounded to 154851; 5149 USD additional employer-inclusive relief/leave cover reconciles to 160000. The regular roster gives 100 paid on-site hours: 94 during 60 public hours and six for opening/closing outside public windows; owner administration adds ten paid hours. Relief is separately funded. BLS May 2025 national 17.03 USD/hour median is context, not a local liquor-store quote. Federal FICA is only part of employer cost; local overtime, breaks, leave, insurance and training need review.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Premises and other recurring overhead (Year 4)
Selected 110000 USD annual recurring overhead: all-in occupancy 57600 (assumed 1600 sq ft at 36 USD/sq ft/year inclusive of stated common-area charges), utilities/connectivity 12000, insurance 7000, POS/stock systems 4800, bookkeeping/professional support 4800, ongoing marketing 12000, cleaning/security/upkeep 9000 and annualized permit/renewal allowance 2800. These are authored line allowances, not national averages or signed quotes. Verify lease inclusions without adding NNN twice; no major replacement, depreciation, interest or income tax is included.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Revenue (Year 5)
Years two through five hold mature basket 40 USD, 130 completed orders per day, six trading days and 4.33 weeks/month constant in 2026 dollars; round each annual total once. No inflation, growth, event or location expansion is assumed. The unit/basket and paid-calendar bridge is the same as year one; original retailer evidence establishes only the merchandise mechanism, not local demand.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Sold goods, stock loss and selling costs (Year 5)
Round 79% of this year's whole-dollar net sales once: selected landed sold-goods cost 75%, shrink/breakage/write-offs 1%, selling bags/consumables 0.2%, and effective payment allowance 2.8%. Net revenue already deducts refunded selling value; salable returns reverse merchandise cost, while only unsalable loss enters the loss allowance. The payment bridge assumes 80% card share and 8% tax on the taxable checkout value with the published Square Free in-person structure, then retains a cushion for actual mix/rounding. This selected contribution is not a vendor or industry-average profit margin; verify invoices, losses, tender mix and contract.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Paid owner, retail team and employer costs (Year 5)
Selected 160000 USD annual payroll: owner-manager 60000 USD for 40 paid hours/week (30 on site including one opening/closing hour, 10 administration), lead 35 hours/week at 24 USD and associate 35 hours/week at 19 USD for 52 payroll weeks. Wage base 138260 USD times selected 12% employer cost is 154851.20 USD, rounded to 154851; 5149 USD additional employer-inclusive relief/leave cover reconciles to 160000. The regular roster gives 100 paid on-site hours: 94 during 60 public hours and six for opening/closing outside public windows; owner administration adds ten paid hours. Relief is separately funded. BLS May 2025 national 17.03 USD/hour median is context, not a local liquor-store quote. Federal FICA is only part of employer cost; local overtime, breaks, leave, insurance and training need review.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Premises and other recurring overhead (Year 5)
Selected 110000 USD annual recurring overhead: all-in occupancy 57600 (assumed 1600 sq ft at 36 USD/sq ft/year inclusive of stated common-area charges), utilities/connectivity 12000, insurance 7000, POS/stock systems 4800, bookkeeping/professional support 4800, ongoing marketing 12000, cleaning/security/upkeep 9000 and annualized permit/renewal allowance 2800. These are authored line allowances, not national averages or signed quotes. Verify lease inclusions without adding NNN twice; no major replacement, depreciation, interest or income tax is included.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Net retail basket (base scenario) · Net retail basket (lower sensitivity) · Net retail basket (upper sensitivity)
Selected 40 USD net basket with 32-48 USD sensitivity bounds. Base bridge: 1.6 merchandise units per completed order at 25 USD weighted net price. Illustration of unit mix, not observed sales shares: 40% spirits at 35 USD, 35% wine at 20 USD and 25% beer packs at 16 USD gives 25 USD per unit. Mix fractions refer to sold merchandise units; a beer multi-pack is one retail unit, and no tasting unit is included. Basket excludes tax and is after discounts/expected refunds, before fees. Bounds are a held-contribution input domain, not customer-spend percentiles.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Completed transactions per day (base scenario) · Completed transactions per day (lower sensitivity) · Completed transactions per day (upper sensitivity)
Selected 130 total completed transactions/day, including repeats once, with 90-140 sensitivity bounds. An illustrative bridge is 160 total visits and 81.25% complete-order conversion; this high-intent total-visitor bridge is not the native workbook's new-buyer cohort input and is not measured demand. Ten public hours imply 13 base orders/hour. The private workload checks 780 orders/week, checkout/age-check time, additional guidance, nonbuyer help, receiving, replenishment, counts, security and breaks against 100 regular paid on-site hours, including six opening/closing hours outside public windows. Average rates do not certify queues; the upper domain leaves little spare coverage and needs peak observation or added paid staff.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Trading days per week (base scenario) · Trading days per week (lower sensitivity) · Trading days per week (upper sensitivity)
Selected six ten-hour public days/week, with a five-day sensitivity and no seventh-day assumption. Shared convention is 4.33 weeks/month, or 51.96 equivalent trading weeks/year, while payroll funds 52 weeks. This generic calendar is not a named state's legal schedule. Texas provides a concrete example of package-store Sunday/holiday restrictions; final local mandatory closures require a dated calendar and revised expected annual orders.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Monthly fixed operating costs
Selected fixed 22500 USD/month is exactly annual payroll 160000 plus annual overhead 110000 divided by twelve. Paid working-owner labor is deducted once before surplus. Full roster and overhead are held from launch and across the tested activity domain; extra peak coverage is a new cost rather than unpaid owner time.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Contribution margin
Selected 0.21 contribution equals one minus 0.75 landed sold goods, 0.01 stock loss/write-offs, 0.002 selling supplies and 0.028 effective processing. Product margin before those other variable items is different. Category invoice margin, legal supply terms and actual losses must validate the assumption; the seller's low goods-cost sample and projected profits are not used.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Opening sales as a share of mature volume · Monthly increase toward mature volume · Forecast horizon (months)
Authored ramp starts at 55% of mature completed orders and adds five percentage points monthly, capped at full volume, across a 24-month display. This is a selected launch path, not a sampled liquor-store cohort or a promised calendar break-even. First-year revenue and operating results reconcile to its first twelve months; years two and three reconcile to mature months. The private/article stress starts at 40% and adds three points, demonstrating that the selected reserve can be insufficient.