Meal Prep Service input evidence register
44 financial inputs with their assumptions, calculation bases and cited sources.
Read the supported claim, observation period, geography and units together. A source access date records when it was consulted. A model assumption identifies a selected amount or target; a calculated result follows from those inputs and does not establish observed demand or a quoted opening budget.
Case updated October 4, 2026. These notes accompany the complete case methodology and source register.
Dataset use notice: no Creative Commons license or DOI is asserted. Referenced material remains subject to its publisher’s terms.
These notes explain the opening budget, annual forecast and calculator assumptions. Linked sources provide the support described in each note; they do not necessarily confirm the selected amounts. Check scenario assumptions against local quotes and operating records.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Total opening budget · Lower opening budget · Upper opening budget · Kitchen access, deposits, site preparation and utility allowance · Cooking, refrigeration, cooling and holding equipment · Smallwares, portioning, labeling and packing setup · Delivery cold-chain gear and used vehicle allowance · Permits, insurance, professional fees, software and launch · Opening food and packaging inventory · Working-capital reserve
Authored licensed-kitchen opening allocation. The cited kitchen access and regulatory sources inform categories but do not verify the facility, equipment, vehicle or reserve amounts.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Revenue (Years 1–5)
Authored sold-meal path: 90 meals/day at $15.50 in Year one, 140 at $15.50 in Year two, 180 at $15.50 in Year three, 205 at $15.75 in Year four and 230 at $16.00 in Year five, each over five days and 52 weeks. The named provider's 2026 guide prices are anchors, not proof of demand or realized price.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Food, packaging, payment and delivery-linked costs (Years 1–5)
Authored 38% sales-linked pool for usable ingredients, packaging, payment fees, released-product spoilage and incremental pickup/delivery supplies. Revenue is already net of discounts and refunds; do not deduct them again. Recipe yields, invoices, waste and actual route costs replace the chosen pool. No source supplies the 38% figure.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Owner-chef, kitchen and packing payroll including employer costs (Years 1–5)
Authored paid owner-chef and three-employee schedule with employer-cost allowance. National occupation pay and federal payroll-tax components are context only. The paid roster includes working-owner or replacement-management labor and an employer-cost allowance. Build local wages, paid setup and cleaning hours, overtime, payroll taxes, unemployment insurance, workers' compensation, leave and benefits by role. BLS occupation medians and IRS federal tax components do not verify that full local roster.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Kitchen, utilities, delivery, software, marketing and other overhead (Years 1–5)
Authored kitchen, utility, delivery, insurance, software, marketing and administration schedule. It is not a lease, kitchen contract or insurance quote.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Retained sale per sold prepared meal (base scenario) · Retained sale per sold prepared meal (lower sensitivity) · Retained sale per sold prepared meal (upper sensitivity) · Sold meals per production day (base scenario) · Sold meals per production day (lower sensitivity) · Sold meals per production day (upper sensitivity) · Trading days per week (base scenario) · Trading days per week (lower sensitivity) · Trading days per week (upper sensitivity) · Monthly fixed operating costs · Contribution margin · Opening sales as a share of mature volume · Monthly increase toward mature volume · Forecast horizon (months)
Authored meal-level bridge used for capacity and break-even. The $15.50 retained price, 180 meals per day, 62% contribution, fixed costs and ramp are not national averages. The low/high controls vary one input at a time and are stress cases, not a jointly feasible alternative facility. Actual closures, channel mix, yield, staffing and funding may move several inputs together. The monthly ramp is not the annual forecast.