Med Spa input evidence register
45 financial inputs with their assumptions, calculation bases and cited sources.
Case updated October 3, 2026. These notes accompany the complete case methodology and source register.
Dataset use notice: no Creative Commons license or DOI is asserted. Referenced material remains subject to its publisher’s terms.
These notes explain the opening budget, annual forecast and calculator assumptions. Linked sources provide the support described in each note; they do not necessarily confirm the selected amounts. Check scenario assumptions against local quotes and operating records.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Total opening budget · Lower opening budget · Upper opening budget · Leasehold work, accessible clinical layout and utilities · Laser and nonablative treatment equipment · Treatment chairs, clinical storage and room equipment · Reception, secure records, booking and IT setup · Opening injectable products, supplies and skincare inventory · Legal structure, permissions, deposits and insurance setup · Recruiting, clinical training and launch preparation · Protected working capital reserve
Authored project allocations: fit-out $150,000, devices $125,000, clinical room equipment $35,000, reception and IT $25,000, opening inventory $55,000, legal work and deposits $45,000, launch $40,000 and reserve $175,000 sum to $650,000. The $425,000 low and $950,000 high cases are alternative fitted-site, device and reserve scopes, not source quotes. Official clinical sources support the categories and need for authority and safe systems, not the dollar amounts.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Revenue (Years 1–5) · Injectable products, treatment consumables, retail cost and payment fees (Years 1–5) · Physician owner, NP, RN and reception incl. employer costs (Years 1–5) · Premises, insurance, records, marketing and device maintenance (Years 1–5)
Authored annual scenarios use daily completed visits of 8.5, 10.5, 12, 13 and 14, multiplied by 260 days and net tickets of $430, $440, $450, $465 and $480. Sales-linked costs are 38%, 36%, 35%, 35% and 35%, rounded to whole USD. Payroll is $440,000, $475,000, $500,000, $520,000 and $540,000; overhead is $170,000, $175,000, $180,000, $189,000 and $198,000. Mature wages include physician owner $120,000, NP $145,000, RN $110,000 and reception $52,000; a modeled 15% employer load plus $8,950 relief produces $500,000. Mature overhead includes $72,000 occupancy, $42,000 marketing, $20,000 insurance, $12,000 records and software, $16,000 device service, $8,000 waste and compliance, and $10,000 administration and other costs. Sources provide context, not these forecasts.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Net sales per completed treatment visit (base scenario) · Net sales per completed treatment visit (lower sensitivity) · Net sales per completed treatment visit (upper sensitivity) · Completed treatment visits per day (base scenario) · Completed treatment visits per day (lower sensitivity) · Completed treatment visits per day (upper sensitivity) · Trading days per week (base scenario) · Trading days per week (lower sensitivity) · Trading days per week (upper sensitivity)
Authored net price of $450 combines 45% neuromodulator visits at $400, 20% filler visits at $750, 25% laser hair-removal visits at $200, 10% nonablative skin visits at $650, plus $5 of average retail. The $350–$550 ticket, 7–16 daily visits and 4–6 weekly days are sensitivity bounds, not market confidence intervals. The base of 12 daily visits and 5 weekly days fits two clinicians with 28 weekly complete-treatment-block hours each and 42 weighted block minutes. A mathematical ceiling of 16 daily visits still needs skill, eligibility and daypart checks. Menu examples do not verify dose, complete visit price or local schedule.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Monthly fixed operating costs · Contribution margin · Opening sales as a share of mature volume · Monthly increase toward mature volume · Forecast horizon (months)
Authored monthly fixed cost of $56,667 approximates mature annual payroll of $500,000 plus overhead of $180,000 divided by 12. A contribution fraction of 0.65 deducts a modeled 35% for injectable products, consumables, retail cost, wastage and payment charges before fixed payroll. The ramp starts at 0.50 of mature visits and adds 0.05 each month over 18 months. It is a sensitivity with full mature costs from opening, not a survey-supported acquisition or retention forecast.