Personal Training Business input evidence register
45 financial inputs with their assumptions, calculation bases and cited sources.
Read the supported claim, observation period, geography and units together. A source access date records when it was consulted. A model assumption identifies a selected amount or target; a calculated result follows from those inputs and does not establish observed demand or a quoted opening budget.
Case updated October 5, 2026. These notes accompany the complete case methodology and source register.
Dataset use notice: no Creative Commons license or DOI is asserted. Referenced material remains subject to its publisher’s terms.
These notes explain the opening budget, annual forecast and calculator assumptions. Linked sources provide the support described in each note; they do not necessarily confirm the selected amounts. Check scenario assumptions against local quotes and operating records.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Total opening budget · Lower opening budget · Upper opening budget
Authored whole-USD opening scopes. Base is the sum of eight selected uses. Lower scope: fitted site, modest equipment and reserve; higher scope: greater site alteration, equipment and reserve. SBA supports separating one-time and recurring uses, DOJ supports checking the actual site and Rogue anchors only one equipment item. None reports these totals or a national range; local quotes and a dated cash plan remain necessary.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Leasehold, flooring, electrical and access work
Authored assumption: Site work allowance for a compatible existing studio; flooring, electrical, sound and access coordination. No signed contractor quote or approved layout.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Strength equipment, benches, weights and storage
Authored assumption: Selected complete-equipment allowance for two training zones, racks, benches, bars/plates, dumbbells, kettlebells, storage and delivery/setup. Rogue base rack at $935 supports only one item; two base racks are $1,870 before other equipment, tax and scope checks. The remaining basket is unquoted.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Lease deposit and pre-opening occupancy
Authored assumption: Selected three months of the $2,500 base monthly lease amount for deposit and pre-opening occupancy combined. It is an opening cash use; no actual deposit or free-rent term is asserted, and post-opening rent remains in annual overhead.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Professional, permit, credential and insurance setup
Authored assumption: Selected professional, permit, credential, CPR/AED and insurance setup allowance. Provider eligibility and access duties are supported; exact fees, local permissions and underwriting are not.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Booking, website, security, reception and payment setup
Authored assumption: Selected booking/website/security/reception/payment setup allowance, separate from recurring systems cost. Square supports booking capabilities and processing channels, not this combined setup quote.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Pre-opening payroll, staff training and launch marketing
Authored assumption: Selected pre-opening labor, safety/operations training and launch marketing before the revenue ramp begins. BLS supports duties but not this opening allowance. No same-period cost is also charged to operating payroll.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Construction and opening contingency
Authored assumption: Selected opening and construction contingency for unquoted setup variation; not extra payroll cash and not operating loss. Replace with quote-specific risk allowances.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Operating cash reserve
Authored assumption: Selected operating reserve compared with independently calculated peak ramp loss and an unspent buffer under prompt collections. This is cash held at opening, not a second expense or a guarantee; the combined price/volume downside exceeds it. No receivables lag, tax, debt or processor hold is funded explicitly.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Revenue (Year 1)
Authored annual scenario: Revenue sums twelve monthly completion shares starting at 0.45 and increasing 0.05 to full volume in month twelve; each share multiplies $100 × 10 completed sessions/day × 5 days/week × 4.33 weeks/month. No externally observed acquisition or retention rate. Sources establish service-price variation and duties only, not these sales.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Payment fees and session-linked supplies (Year 1)
Authored annual variable cost: 5% of unrounded scenario revenue, rounded half up once to whole USD. Includes selected processing and session supplies; actual channel, pack payment size and terms change the amount. Square online/card-on-file prices support the processing context but do not verify the complete share.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Owner, employee, employer costs and absence cover (Year 1)
Authored payroll: owner $65,000 plus employee $28/hour × 40 paid hours × 52 weeks = $123,240 wage base; selected 20% employer allowance plus 240 replacement-coaching hours × $34 gives $156,048 for each of the first three years. Year four multiplies the unrounded base by 1.04; year five by 1.04 squared, then rounds to whole USD. Full paid time includes noncoaching duties. BLS employee medians and IRS statutory components do not verify local wages, entity tax treatment, the complete burden or backup availability.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Premises, systems, marketing and operating overhead (Year 1)
Authored annual overhead: base rent $30,000 (1,200 sq. ft. × selected $25/sq. ft./year), property charges $3,600, utilities $4,800, insurance $2,400, systems $2,400, marketing $12,000, cleaning $3,600, upkeep $2,400, professional services $3,600 and miscellaneous $1,200 = $66,000 in years one to three. Years four/five compound 3% from the unrounded base before whole-USD rounding. CBRE is broad asking-rent context, not the annual studio lease basis or a CAM quote; other vendor contracts are unquoted.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Revenue (Year 2)
Authored annual scenario: Mature revenue is $100 × 10 completed sessions/day across both trainers × 5 days/week × 4.33 weeks/month × 12. Equivalent planned roster: 25 active clients × 2 completed hours/week × 4.33 weeks/month. Both are capacity assumptions, not observed customers. Sources establish service-price variation and duties only, not these sales.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Payment fees and session-linked supplies (Year 2)
Authored annual variable cost: 5% of unrounded scenario revenue, rounded half up once to whole USD. Includes selected processing and session supplies; actual channel, pack payment size and terms change the amount. Square online/card-on-file prices support the processing context but do not verify the complete share.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Owner, employee, employer costs and absence cover (Year 2)
Authored payroll: owner $65,000 plus employee $28/hour × 40 paid hours × 52 weeks = $123,240 wage base; selected 20% employer allowance plus 240 replacement-coaching hours × $34 gives $156,048 for each of the first three years. Year four multiplies the unrounded base by 1.04; year five by 1.04 squared, then rounds to whole USD. Full paid time includes noncoaching duties. BLS employee medians and IRS statutory components do not verify local wages, entity tax treatment, the complete burden or backup availability.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Premises, systems, marketing and operating overhead (Year 2)
Authored annual overhead: base rent $30,000 (1,200 sq. ft. × selected $25/sq. ft./year), property charges $3,600, utilities $4,800, insurance $2,400, systems $2,400, marketing $12,000, cleaning $3,600, upkeep $2,400, professional services $3,600 and miscellaneous $1,200 = $66,000 in years one to three. Years four/five compound 3% from the unrounded base before whole-USD rounding. CBRE is broad asking-rent context, not the annual studio lease basis or a CAM quote; other vendor contracts are unquoted.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Revenue (Year 3)
Authored annual scenario: Mature revenue is $100 × 10 completed sessions/day across both trainers × 5 days/week × 4.33 weeks/month × 12. Equivalent planned roster: 25 active clients × 2 completed hours/week × 4.33 weeks/month. Both are capacity assumptions, not observed customers. Sources establish service-price variation and duties only, not these sales.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Payment fees and session-linked supplies (Year 3)
Authored annual variable cost: 5% of unrounded scenario revenue, rounded half up once to whole USD. Includes selected processing and session supplies; actual channel, pack payment size and terms change the amount. Square online/card-on-file prices support the processing context but do not verify the complete share.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Owner, employee, employer costs and absence cover (Year 3)
Authored payroll: owner $65,000 plus employee $28/hour × 40 paid hours × 52 weeks = $123,240 wage base; selected 20% employer allowance plus 240 replacement-coaching hours × $34 gives $156,048 for each of the first three years. Year four multiplies the unrounded base by 1.04; year five by 1.04 squared, then rounds to whole USD. Full paid time includes noncoaching duties. BLS employee medians and IRS statutory components do not verify local wages, entity tax treatment, the complete burden or backup availability.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Premises, systems, marketing and operating overhead (Year 3)
Authored annual overhead: base rent $30,000 (1,200 sq. ft. × selected $25/sq. ft./year), property charges $3,600, utilities $4,800, insurance $2,400, systems $2,400, marketing $12,000, cleaning $3,600, upkeep $2,400, professional services $3,600 and miscellaneous $1,200 = $66,000 in years one to three. Years four/five compound 3% from the unrounded base before whole-USD rounding. CBRE is broad asking-rent context, not the annual studio lease basis or a CAM quote; other vendor contracts are unquoted.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Revenue (Year 4)
Authored annual scenario: Revenue selects $103 realized yield and 11 completed sessions/day × 5 days × 4.33 weeks × 12; 55 completed hours fit within the unchanged 60 offered hours/week. Price and completion changes are assumptions, not an industry growth rate. Sources establish service-price variation and duties only, not these sales.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Payment fees and session-linked supplies (Year 4)
Authored annual variable cost: 5% of unrounded scenario revenue, rounded half up once to whole USD. Includes selected processing and session supplies; actual channel, pack payment size and terms change the amount. Square online/card-on-file prices support the processing context but do not verify the complete share.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Owner, employee, employer costs and absence cover (Year 4)
Authored payroll: owner $65,000 plus employee $28/hour × 40 paid hours × 52 weeks = $123,240 wage base; selected 20% employer allowance plus 240 replacement-coaching hours × $34 gives $156,048 for each of the first three years. Year four multiplies the unrounded base by 1.04; year five by 1.04 squared, then rounds to whole USD. Full paid time includes noncoaching duties. BLS employee medians and IRS statutory components do not verify local wages, entity tax treatment, the complete burden or backup availability.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Premises, systems, marketing and operating overhead (Year 4)
Authored annual overhead: base rent $30,000 (1,200 sq. ft. × selected $25/sq. ft./year), property charges $3,600, utilities $4,800, insurance $2,400, systems $2,400, marketing $12,000, cleaning $3,600, upkeep $2,400, professional services $3,600 and miscellaneous $1,200 = $66,000 in years one to three. Years four/five compound 3% from the unrounded base before whole-USD rounding. CBRE is broad asking-rent context, not the annual studio lease basis or a CAM quote; other vendor contracts are unquoted.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Revenue (Year 5)
Authored annual scenario: Revenue selects $106 realized yield and the same 11 completed sessions/day × 5 days × 4.33 weeks × 12. No further volume expansion or new service revenue; exact annual revenue rounds half up to whole USD. Sources establish service-price variation and duties only, not these sales.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Payment fees and session-linked supplies (Year 5)
Authored annual variable cost: 5% of unrounded scenario revenue, rounded half up once to whole USD. Includes selected processing and session supplies; actual channel, pack payment size and terms change the amount. Square online/card-on-file prices support the processing context but do not verify the complete share.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Owner, employee, employer costs and absence cover (Year 5)
Authored payroll: owner $65,000 plus employee $28/hour × 40 paid hours × 52 weeks = $123,240 wage base; selected 20% employer allowance plus 240 replacement-coaching hours × $34 gives $156,048 for each of the first three years. Year four multiplies the unrounded base by 1.04; year five by 1.04 squared, then rounds to whole USD. Full paid time includes noncoaching duties. BLS employee medians and IRS statutory components do not verify local wages, entity tax treatment, the complete burden or backup availability.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Premises, systems, marketing and operating overhead (Year 5)
Authored annual overhead: base rent $30,000 (1,200 sq. ft. × selected $25/sq. ft./year), property charges $3,600, utilities $4,800, insurance $2,400, systems $2,400, marketing $12,000, cleaning $3,600, upkeep $2,400, professional services $3,600 and miscellaneous $1,200 = $66,000 in years one to three. Years four/five compound 3% from the unrounded base before whole-USD rounding. CBRE is broad asking-rent context, not the annual studio lease basis or a CAM quote; other vendor contracts are unquoted.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Realized revenue per completed 60-minute session (base scenario) · Realized revenue per completed 60-minute session (lower sensitivity) · Realized revenue per completed 60-minute session (upper sensitivity)
Authored realized-yield range $80/$100/$110 per completed 60-minute session after discounts and refunds, before separately modeled processing/supplies. U.S. operator listings show lower pack and single-session prices; they do not establish the selected blended local yield or an observed high endpoint. Range tests differing offer/market assumptions, not a national confidence interval; the base requires evidence beyond a $100 headline offer.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Completed 60-minute sessions per day across both trainers (base scenario) · Completed 60-minute sessions per day across both trainers (lower sensitivity) · Completed 60-minute sessions per day across both trainers (upper sensitivity)
Authored completed counts across both trainers: base 10/day, lower 6, upper 12. Base is 50 completed hours/week against 60 offered; upper is the full 60 offered hours at five days. Each trainer has 40 paid hours, with owner 28 offered plus 12 other-duty hours and employee 32 offered plus 8 other-duty hours. No per-trainer multiplication or additional cancellation deduction. BLS confirms multiple duties, not the precise roster, completion rate or local bookings; upper leaves no completion buffer.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Trading days per week (base scenario) · Trading days per week (lower sensitivity) · Trading days per week (upper sensitivity)
Authored five-day base/upper schedule and four-day lower sensitivity. Paid labor stays committed in the simple sensitivity; maximum joint slider demand is 12 × 5 = 60 completed hours/week, within the planned offered calendar. Shared calculator uses 4.33 weeks/month; actual holidays, dated openings and cover need a real schedule. BLS schedule variation does not verify these operating days.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Monthly fixed operating costs
Authored monthly committed cost is ($156,048 annual payroll plus $66,000 annual overhead)/12 = $18,504. Paid owner, employee nonbillable time and replacement provision appear once. National wage, employer-tax and broad rent evidence frame assumptions without proving these costs. Depreciation, debt, income tax and replacement investment remain outside this operating proxy.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Contribution margin
Authored 0.95 contribution fraction equals one minus the selected 0.05 processing/supply share. For context, $100 online Square Free charge costs 3.3% plus $0.30; this does not certify the remaining supply allowance or a constant percentage at every price. Trainer wages stay in fixed payroll, not deducted again per session.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Opening sales as a share of mature volume · Monthly increase toward mature volume · Forecast horizon (months)
Authored completion ramp starts at 45% of mature sessions and adds five percentage points monthly, capped at full volume; 24 months are inspected. Fractional monthly average volumes are expectations, not literal fractional sessions or acquired clients. Sources support planning and duties, not the chosen ramp, probabilities, seasonality or client lifetime. A slower independent ramp and combined adverse case are recorded privately.