Pharmacy input evidence register
45 financial inputs with their assumptions, calculation bases and cited sources.
Case updated October 3, 2026. These notes accompany the complete case methodology and source register.
Dataset use notice: no Creative Commons license or DOI is asserted. Referenced material remains subject to its publisher’s terms.
These notes explain the opening budget, annual forecast and calculator assumptions. Linked sources provide the support described in each note; they do not necessarily confirm the selected amounts. Check scenario assumptions against local quotes and operating records.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Total opening budget · Lower opening budget · Upper opening budget
Authored total and alternative leased-project scopes, not a surveyed opening-price distribution. Lower scope reuses more suitable fitted space and moderates stock/contingency; higher scope requires additional secure premises work and cash. Historical startup guidance supports separating stock and receipt-delay funding but its dated dollar figure is not used.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Secure dispensary fit-out and site work
Selected installed secure-premises allowance; actual lease, code, pharmacy-board and contractor findings are required.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Retail shelving, counters and counseling furniture
Selected retail/counseling fixtures allowance, not an observed dealer quote.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Dispensing systems, POS and network setup
Selected dispensing software implementation, POS, hardware and network allowance; supplier bids and recurring subscriptions require validation.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Medication refrigeration, monitoring and security
Selected combined refrigeration, monitoring and security allowance. Manufacturer specifications support purpose-built equipment scope, not the amount or suitability for every drug.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Deposits, licensing support and launch training
Selected deposits, professional setup/licensing support and training allowance; actual jurisdiction fees and lease terms remain unknown.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Opening prescription and front-shop inventory
Selected opening inventory asset, not a recurring additional expense. At the assumed mature 79.5% goods cost, it represents about 21.4 calendar days of stock under a 30-day inventory convention. Formulary, cost, expiry and supplier terms require actual quotes.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Operating and collection-delay cash reserve
Selected cash reserve separately funds the cumulative ramp deficit, an assumed 30-day receipt lag on 85% of prescription sales and a residual buffer. No wholesale credit is assumed in this check; actual payables, tax, debt and replacement may alter funding.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Installation and opening contingency
Selected contingency for uncertain coordinated site work and opening conditions, not a measured contractor surcharge.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Revenue (Year 1)
Year 1 authored earned sales from $85 net retail order sales × 160 daily completed orders × six days × 4.33 weeks/month. Year one sums twelve monthly shares starting at 35% and adding 5.5 percentage points; later years are mature, held constant in 2026 dollars. The assumed basket comprises 1.2 prescription fills at $65 retained sales plus $7 front-shop sales. Industry activity is context only; no national source verifies traffic, mix, price or a new patient book.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Drug and retail goods, dispensing supplies and variable transaction expense (Year 1)
Year 1 cost is rounded annual sales × 81.5%: selected goods acquisition share 79.5% plus 2% variable dispensing/transaction expense. Retained revenue already includes expected reimbursement reductions and noncollection. Do not subtract them twice; stock investment is not added to sold-goods expense. Actual NDC/payer/invoice records must replace this blended share.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Paid pharmacist owner, staff pharmacist, technicians, clerk, employer costs and relief (Year 1)
Year 1 paid roster: pharmacist owner $150,000; 0.6 FTE pharmacist $90,000; two technicians $48,000 each; retail clerk $40,000. Wage base $376,000 plus selected 20% employer costs and $28,800 qualified relief equals $480,000. Owner budgets 36 pharmacist hours plus four management hours/week, staff pharmacist 24, relief four average hours; 64 pharmacist hours cover 58 public hours with limited overlap. Two technicians supply 80 weekly hours, clerk 40. BLS is pay/role context, not a local quote or lawful capacity approval.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Rent, utilities, insurance, software, compliance support and recurring upkeep (Year 1)
Year 1 authored recurring $120,000 overhead: occupancy $54,000 ($30/square foot/year for 1,800 square feet), utilities/communications $12,000, insurance $12,000, software/tracing systems $18,000, professional support/outreach $12,000 and recurring upkeep $12,000. No rent average or signed bid is claimed; local quotes and lease inclusions are required.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Revenue (Year 2)
Year 2 authored earned sales from $85 net retail order sales × 160 daily completed orders × six days × 4.33 weeks/month. Year one sums twelve monthly shares starting at 35% and adding 5.5 percentage points; later years are mature, held constant in 2026 dollars. The assumed basket comprises 1.2 prescription fills at $65 retained sales plus $7 front-shop sales. Industry activity is context only; no national source verifies traffic, mix, price or a new patient book.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Drug and retail goods, dispensing supplies and variable transaction expense (Year 2)
Year 2 cost is rounded annual sales × 81.5%: selected goods acquisition share 79.5% plus 2% variable dispensing/transaction expense. Retained revenue already includes expected reimbursement reductions and noncollection. Do not subtract them twice; stock investment is not added to sold-goods expense. Actual NDC/payer/invoice records must replace this blended share.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Paid pharmacist owner, staff pharmacist, technicians, clerk, employer costs and relief (Year 2)
Year 2 paid roster: pharmacist owner $150,000; 0.6 FTE pharmacist $90,000; two technicians $48,000 each; retail clerk $40,000. Wage base $376,000 plus selected 20% employer costs and $28,800 qualified relief equals $480,000. Owner budgets 36 pharmacist hours plus four management hours/week, staff pharmacist 24, relief four average hours; 64 pharmacist hours cover 58 public hours with limited overlap. Two technicians supply 80 weekly hours, clerk 40. BLS is pay/role context, not a local quote or lawful capacity approval.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Rent, utilities, insurance, software, compliance support and recurring upkeep (Year 2)
Year 2 authored recurring $120,000 overhead: occupancy $54,000 ($30/square foot/year for 1,800 square feet), utilities/communications $12,000, insurance $12,000, software/tracing systems $18,000, professional support/outreach $12,000 and recurring upkeep $12,000. No rent average or signed bid is claimed; local quotes and lease inclusions are required.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Revenue (Year 3)
Year 3 authored earned sales from $85 net retail order sales × 160 daily completed orders × six days × 4.33 weeks/month. Year one sums twelve monthly shares starting at 35% and adding 5.5 percentage points; later years are mature, held constant in 2026 dollars. The assumed basket comprises 1.2 prescription fills at $65 retained sales plus $7 front-shop sales. Industry activity is context only; no national source verifies traffic, mix, price or a new patient book.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Drug and retail goods, dispensing supplies and variable transaction expense (Year 3)
Year 3 cost is rounded annual sales × 81.5%: selected goods acquisition share 79.5% plus 2% variable dispensing/transaction expense. Retained revenue already includes expected reimbursement reductions and noncollection. Do not subtract them twice; stock investment is not added to sold-goods expense. Actual NDC/payer/invoice records must replace this blended share.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Paid pharmacist owner, staff pharmacist, technicians, clerk, employer costs and relief (Year 3)
Year 3 paid roster: pharmacist owner $150,000; 0.6 FTE pharmacist $90,000; two technicians $48,000 each; retail clerk $40,000. Wage base $376,000 plus selected 20% employer costs and $28,800 qualified relief equals $480,000. Owner budgets 36 pharmacist hours plus four management hours/week, staff pharmacist 24, relief four average hours; 64 pharmacist hours cover 58 public hours with limited overlap. Two technicians supply 80 weekly hours, clerk 40. BLS is pay/role context, not a local quote or lawful capacity approval.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Rent, utilities, insurance, software, compliance support and recurring upkeep (Year 3)
Year 3 authored recurring $120,000 overhead: occupancy $54,000 ($30/square foot/year for 1,800 square feet), utilities/communications $12,000, insurance $12,000, software/tracing systems $18,000, professional support/outreach $12,000 and recurring upkeep $12,000. No rent average or signed bid is claimed; local quotes and lease inclusions are required.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Revenue (Year 4)
Year 4 authored earned sales from $85 net retail order sales × 160 daily completed orders × six days × 4.33 weeks/month. Year one sums twelve monthly shares starting at 35% and adding 5.5 percentage points; later years are mature, held constant in 2026 dollars. The assumed basket comprises 1.2 prescription fills at $65 retained sales plus $7 front-shop sales. Industry activity is context only; no national source verifies traffic, mix, price or a new patient book.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Drug and retail goods, dispensing supplies and variable transaction expense (Year 4)
Year 4 cost is rounded annual sales × 81.5%: selected goods acquisition share 79.5% plus 2% variable dispensing/transaction expense. Retained revenue already includes expected reimbursement reductions and noncollection. Do not subtract them twice; stock investment is not added to sold-goods expense. Actual NDC/payer/invoice records must replace this blended share.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Paid pharmacist owner, staff pharmacist, technicians, clerk, employer costs and relief (Year 4)
Year 4 paid roster: pharmacist owner $150,000; 0.6 FTE pharmacist $90,000; two technicians $48,000 each; retail clerk $40,000. Wage base $376,000 plus selected 20% employer costs and $28,800 qualified relief equals $480,000. Owner budgets 36 pharmacist hours plus four management hours/week, staff pharmacist 24, relief four average hours; 64 pharmacist hours cover 58 public hours with limited overlap. Two technicians supply 80 weekly hours, clerk 40. BLS is pay/role context, not a local quote or lawful capacity approval.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Rent, utilities, insurance, software, compliance support and recurring upkeep (Year 4)
Year 4 authored recurring $120,000 overhead: occupancy $54,000 ($30/square foot/year for 1,800 square feet), utilities/communications $12,000, insurance $12,000, software/tracing systems $18,000, professional support/outreach $12,000 and recurring upkeep $12,000. No rent average or signed bid is claimed; local quotes and lease inclusions are required.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Revenue (Year 5)
Year 5 authored earned sales from $85 net retail order sales × 160 daily completed orders × six days × 4.33 weeks/month. Year one sums twelve monthly shares starting at 35% and adding 5.5 percentage points; later years are mature, held constant in 2026 dollars. The assumed basket comprises 1.2 prescription fills at $65 retained sales plus $7 front-shop sales. Industry activity is context only; no national source verifies traffic, mix, price or a new patient book.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Drug and retail goods, dispensing supplies and variable transaction expense (Year 5)
Year 5 cost is rounded annual sales × 81.5%: selected goods acquisition share 79.5% plus 2% variable dispensing/transaction expense. Retained revenue already includes expected reimbursement reductions and noncollection. Do not subtract them twice; stock investment is not added to sold-goods expense. Actual NDC/payer/invoice records must replace this blended share.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Paid pharmacist owner, staff pharmacist, technicians, clerk, employer costs and relief (Year 5)
Year 5 paid roster: pharmacist owner $150,000; 0.6 FTE pharmacist $90,000; two technicians $48,000 each; retail clerk $40,000. Wage base $376,000 plus selected 20% employer costs and $28,800 qualified relief equals $480,000. Owner budgets 36 pharmacist hours plus four management hours/week, staff pharmacist 24, relief four average hours; 64 pharmacist hours cover 58 public hours with limited overlap. Two technicians supply 80 weekly hours, clerk 40. BLS is pay/role context, not a local quote or lawful capacity approval.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Rent, utilities, insurance, software, compliance support and recurring upkeep (Year 5)
Year 5 authored recurring $120,000 overhead: occupancy $54,000 ($30/square foot/year for 1,800 square feet), utilities/communications $12,000, insurance $12,000, software/tracing systems $18,000, professional support/outreach $12,000 and recurring upkeep $12,000. No rent average or signed bid is claimed; local quotes and lease inclusions are required.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Net realized sales per completed retail order (base scenario) · Net realized sales per completed retail order (lower sensitivity) · Net realized sales per completed retail order (upper sensitivity)
Selected $85 retained sales per completed order and $70/$100 sensitivity bounds. Base basket is 1.2 prescription fills × $65 plus $7 front-shop sales. Includes expected contractual reductions and noncollection, excludes sales tax and separately billed services. The range is a sensitivity domain rather than a measured confidence interval; changed mixes may also change contribution.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Completed retail orders per day, including repeat pickups (base scenario) · Completed retail orders per day, including repeat pickups (lower sensitivity) · Completed retail orders per day, including repeat pickups (upper sensitivity)
Selected 160 completed daily orders, including repeats; sensitivity 100–190. Base implies 192 prescription fills/day and about 59,858/year, below NCPA established-store average 67,601; this does not verify startup demand or safe capacity. Across 58 public hours/week, base implies about 19.9 prescription fills per open hour. The responsible pharmacist must validate staffing and workload.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Trading days per week (base scenario) · Trading days per week (lower sensitivity) · Trading days per week (upper sensitivity)
Authored six-day calendar with a five-day sensitivity. Public schedule is five ten-hour days plus an eight-hour Saturday, totaling 58 hours/week. Actual holidays and qualified leave cover must fit the roster; 4.33 weeks/month is the shared planning convention rather than a dated opening calendar.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Monthly fixed operating costs
Authored $50,000 monthly fixed cost equals $480,000 annual paid payroll plus $120,000 recurring overhead divided by twelve. All modeled owner work is paid; financing, depreciation and income tax remain outside this operating threshold.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Contribution margin
Selected 18.5% contribution after goods and variable dispensing/transaction cost. This is not a quoted NCPA margin, prescription markup or guaranteed reimbursement. It is 1 minus the selected 79.5% goods share and 2% variable expense; actual drug and payer mix must substantiate it.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Opening sales as a share of mature volume · Monthly increase toward mature volume · Forecast horizon (months)
Authored launch path starts at 35% of mature orders, adds 5.5 percentage points monthly until capped at full volume, and displays 24 months. It reflects an assumed building patient book, not a observed startup cohort or a source-supported break-even timetable.