Preschool input evidence register
50 financial inputs with their assumptions, calculation bases and cited sources.
Read the supported claim, observation period, geography and units together. A source access date records when it was consulted. A model assumption identifies a selected amount or target; a calculated result follows from those inputs and does not establish observed demand or a quoted opening budget.
Case updated October 6, 2026. These notes accompany the complete case methodology and source register.
Dataset use notice: no Creative Commons license or DOI is asserted. Referenced material remains subject to its publisher’s terms.
These notes explain the opening budget, annual forecast and calculator assumptions. Linked sources provide the support described in each note; they do not necessarily confirm the selected amounts. Check scenario assumptions against local quotes and operating records.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Total opening budget · Lower opening budget · Upper opening budget · Lease deposits and preopening rent · Classroom, restroom and safety fit-out · Learning furniture and equipment · Outdoor play and access work · Licensing, legal and staff recruitment · Curriculum, security and software setup · Enrollment launch and family outreach · Operating cash reserve
Authored $280,000 opening allocation sums eight whole-dollar uses; $195,000 lower and $420,000 higher scopes represent materially different adaptation work, not confidence bounds or sourced industry averages. Rent deposit $18,000, classroom/restroom/safety fit-out $70,000, equipment $34,000, outdoor $22,000, permission/recruitment $15,000, setup $10,000, outreach $6,000 and reserve $105,000 are unquoted allowances. Maryland requirements identify eligible-space, staffing and outdoor constraints without pricing them. Building purchase, ground-up work, debt and tax are excluded; local findings and coordinated quotes can change every allocation. Direct current Lakeshore examples display $499 for one LC501 table/four-seat set and $399 for a B250A block set. They anchor individual furniture/material prices only, excluding freight, tax, other items, assembly and site work; they do not total or verify the authored $34,000 learning-equipment allocation. No separate spendable site contingency is assumed: overruns reduce the protected reserve and require refreshed bids and funding.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Revenue (Years 1–5)
Selected average school-year occupied places of 24/32/36/38/40 × ten tuition months × monthly fees of $1, 350/$1, 350/$1, 350/$1,390/$1,430 produce $324,000/$432,000/$486,000/$528,200/$572,000. Original provider fees contextualize variation but do not verify this offer, number of billing months or realized occupancy. NCES does not verify private demand. No enrollment above forty, summer/registration/grant income or extra streams enter. School-year recognition and actual collections can differ. The opening-year school-month cash example assumes billing by active enrolled month, with prorated late starts rather than collecting a full-year fee for a partial year.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Snacks, learning consumables and collection costs (Years 1–5) · Contribution margin
Authored child-linked supplies/snacks, collection and leakage allowance totals 8% of tuition, giving $25,920/$34,560/$38,880/$42,256/$45,760 and 92% contribution before all paid payroll and overhead. Provider pages describe differing inclusions, not this cost rate. Rebuild actual supplier/payment/refund terms; meals, transport and extra care are not implicitly funded. The rate is held constant in the simplified price/enrollment sensitivities.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Teachers, assistants, paid director and substitute cover (Years 1–5)
First-three-year selected gross wages are two leads × 35 h × 42 weeks × $28 = $82,320; two assistants × 35 h × 42 weeks × $22 = $64,680; paid owner/director $60,000; substitute $10,000. Gross wages $217,000 plus 20% employer allowance $43,400 gives $260,400. Forty-two paid weeks include 36 teaching and 6 preparation/training/leave weeks; annual contracts are paid over 12 months. Years 4/5 apply 3% payroll growth, rounded whole dollars $268,212/$276,258. National pay and tax facts supply context, not hiring offers, benefits or approval. Classroom ratio and qualified break/absence/director cover require a real roster.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Year-round rent, insurance, utilities and administration (Years 1–5) · Monthly fixed operating costs
Authored annual overhead $96,000 comprises rent $60,000, utilities $12,000, insurance $6,000, maintenance/cleaning $6,000, software/admin $6,000 and outreach $6,000; it continues twelve months. No national rent quote is claimed. Years 4/5 apply 3% growth to $98,880/$101,846. Mature fixed monthly cost= ($260,400 payroll + $96,000 overhead) / 12 = $29,700. Classroom contract pay, director and substitutes are already included; adding them again double-counts labor. Debt, tax and asset replacement are excluded.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Annual tuition per enrolled child / reference day (base scenario) · Annual tuition per enrolled child / reference day (lower sensitivity) · Annual tuition per enrolled child / reference day (upper sensitivity)
The three website USD drivers equal annual tuition of $13,500/$10,000/$17,000 divided by 259.8 reference days (5 × 4.33 × 12), preserving full precision. These represent selected ten-month tuition of $1, 350/$1,000/$1,700; they are not daily attendance tariffs or national price percentiles. The matching paid model uses occupied places and monthly fees. Its gallery defaults and ancillary values are not imported. Actual educational service is 180 teaching days, distinct from reference normalization.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Unique enrolled children in the program (base scenario) · Unique enrolled children in the program (lower sensitivity) · Unique enrolled children in the program (upper sensitivity) · Trading days per week (base scenario) · Trading days per week (lower sensitivity) · Trading days per week (upper sensitivity)
Selected mature 36, opening/downside 18 and high 40 unique enrolled children are program-wide simultaneous place counts, not separate attendance transactions. Two groups of up to 20 use the ordinary Maryland mixed-age preschool 1:10 rule as an example; actual approval is absent. All weekday bounds are 5 because this program's promise is Monday–Friday; days do not model summer closure. The actual school year assumes 180 teaching days and ten tuition months, neither determined by the shared 4.33 convention.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Opening sales as a share of mature volume · Monthly increase toward mature volume · Forecast horizon (months)
An explicitly selected smooth sensitivity starts at 50% of 36 places (18), adds 1/36 of the mature base per month (one place-equivalent) and reaches full 36 in month 19, with 24 displayed months. It is not a measured admissions pace, probability or school-year cash schedule. Complete first-three-year reconciliation in the article distinguishes the authored annual enrollment path; the normalized break-even month does not imply cash profit during summer. National participation and seller driver mechanics do not verify the ramp.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Payroll: Headcount · Payroll: Paid hours per worker per week · Payroll: Paid weeks per year · Payroll: Hourly wage · Payroll: Employer cost allowance
Selected classroom-only inputs are 4 workers, 35 paid hours weekly, 42 paid weeks, $25 blended gross hourly wage and 20% additional employer costs. Equal hours at two $28 lead/two $22 assistant rates produce the blend. Formula 4 × 35 × 42 × 25 × 1.20 = $176,400 annual classroom cost. Director $72,000 burdened and substitutes $12,000 burdened are included separately in total forecast payroll $260,400. National median pay is not the default and employer burden is not the employee withholding rate. Classroom compensation is distributed over 12 payments under the selected contract policy.