Spa & Massage Therapy input evidence register
44 numeric input paths with their assumptions, calculation bases and cited sources.
Case updated October 1, 2026. This technical appendix accompanies the complete case methodology and source register.
Dataset use notice: no Creative Commons license or DOI is asserted. Referenced material remains subject to its publisher’s terms.
A linked reference can support scope without confirming an exact forecast. Assumption entries identify values that still require local validation. Each field path identifies an input in the common business record.
- Model assumption
Authored whole-USD opening scopes: $170,000 low, $285,000 base and $440,000 high. Base items sum exactly to total. Standard-table listing and Texas approval steps supply bounded equipment/setup context only. Fit-out, delivered equipment, deposits, launch and the $100,000 reserve are not observed quotes. Low/high scope allocations and exclusions are documented in the private calculations; a local dated cash plan is required.
capital.total · capital.low · capital.high · capital.items.0.amount · capital.items.1.amount · capital.items.2.amount · capital.items.3.amount · capital.items.4.amount · capital.items.5.amount · capital.items.6.amount
- Model assumption
Year 1 authored annual sales = 13.5 average completed visits/day × $106 realized net sales/visit × 6 days × 52 weeks. Membership and employer-package redemptions are included once. Menu examples are context, not source verification of these assumptions. Tax, tips and unearned prepaid receipts are excluded.
forecast.years.0.revenue
- Model assumption
Year 1 authored sales-linked costs equal 16% of annual net revenue, rounded to whole USD. Includes supplies, outsourced laundry, transaction charges and retail cost. Square verifies only a component fee schedule; actual tender mix, vendor prices and usage must replace this allocation. Therapist labor is entirely in payroll, not double-counted here.
forecast.years.0.costOfSales
- Model assumption
Year 1 authored payroll budget is $330000, including paid owner-management, six part-time employee therapists, reception, employer costs and relief allowance. The private payroll bridge phases paid hours and wage assumptions. BLS is national occupation context and IRS verifies only federal components; neither source quotes this roster.
forecast.years.0.payroll
- Model assumption
Year 1 authored occupancy and other overhead is $97000; mature allocation separates lease/CAM, utilities, insurance, software, marketing, cleaning/repairs and administration. The sources identify compliance/payment context only, not a rent, insurance or expense quote.
forecast.years.0.occupancyAndOther
- Model assumption
Year 2 authored annual sales = 16 average completed visits/day × $109 realized net sales/visit × 6 days × 52 weeks. Membership and employer-package redemptions are included once. Menu examples are context, not source verification of these assumptions. Tax, tips and unearned prepaid receipts are excluded.
forecast.years.1.revenue
- Model assumption
Year 2 authored sales-linked costs equal 15.5% of annual net revenue, rounded to whole USD. Includes supplies, outsourced laundry, transaction charges and retail cost. Square verifies only a component fee schedule; actual tender mix, vendor prices and usage must replace this allocation. Therapist labor is entirely in payroll, not double-counted here.
forecast.years.1.costOfSales
- Model assumption
Year 2 authored payroll budget is $356000, including paid owner-management, six part-time employee therapists, reception, employer costs and relief allowance. The private payroll bridge phases paid hours and wage assumptions. BLS is national occupation context and IRS verifies only federal components; neither source quotes this roster.
forecast.years.1.payroll
- Model assumption
Year 2 authored occupancy and other overhead is $99500; mature allocation separates lease/CAM, utilities, insurance, software, marketing, cleaning/repairs and administration. The sources identify compliance/payment context only, not a rent, insurance or expense quote.
forecast.years.1.occupancyAndOther
- Model assumption
Year 3 authored annual sales = 18 average completed visits/day × $112 realized net sales/visit × 6 days × 52 weeks. Membership and employer-package redemptions are included once. Menu examples are context, not source verification of these assumptions. Tax, tips and unearned prepaid receipts are excluded.
forecast.years.2.revenue
- Model assumption
Year 3 authored sales-linked costs equal 15% of annual net revenue, rounded to whole USD. Includes supplies, outsourced laundry, transaction charges and retail cost. Square verifies only a component fee schedule; actual tender mix, vendor prices and usage must replace this allocation. Therapist labor is entirely in payroll, not double-counted here.
forecast.years.2.costOfSales
- Model assumption
Year 3 authored payroll budget is $378000, including paid owner-management, six part-time employee therapists, reception, employer costs and relief allowance. The private payroll bridge phases paid hours and wage assumptions. BLS is national occupation context and IRS verifies only federal components; neither source quotes this roster.
forecast.years.2.payroll
- Model assumption
Year 3 authored occupancy and other overhead is $102000; mature allocation separates lease/CAM, utilities, insurance, software, marketing, cleaning/repairs and administration. The sources identify compliance/payment context only, not a rent, insurance or expense quote.
forecast.years.2.occupancyAndOther
- Model assumption
Year 4 authored annual sales = 18.5 average completed visits/day × $116 realized net sales/visit × 6 days × 52 weeks. Membership and employer-package redemptions are included once. Menu examples are context, not source verification of these assumptions. Tax, tips and unearned prepaid receipts are excluded.
forecast.years.3.revenue
- Model assumption
Year 4 authored sales-linked costs equal 15% of annual net revenue, rounded to whole USD. Includes supplies, outsourced laundry, transaction charges and retail cost. Square verifies only a component fee schedule; actual tender mix, vendor prices and usage must replace this allocation. Therapist labor is entirely in payroll, not double-counted here.
forecast.years.3.costOfSales
- Model assumption
Year 4 authored payroll budget is $393000, including paid owner-management, six part-time employee therapists, reception, employer costs and relief allowance. The private payroll bridge phases paid hours and wage assumptions. BLS is national occupation context and IRS verifies only federal components; neither source quotes this roster.
forecast.years.3.payroll
- Model assumption
Year 4 authored occupancy and other overhead is $106000; mature allocation separates lease/CAM, utilities, insurance, software, marketing, cleaning/repairs and administration. The sources identify compliance/payment context only, not a rent, insurance or expense quote.
forecast.years.3.occupancyAndOther
- Model assumption
Year 5 authored annual sales = 19 average completed visits/day × $120 realized net sales/visit × 6 days × 52 weeks. Membership and employer-package redemptions are included once. Menu examples are context, not source verification of these assumptions. Tax, tips and unearned prepaid receipts are excluded.
forecast.years.4.revenue
- Model assumption
Year 5 authored sales-linked costs equal 15% of annual net revenue, rounded to whole USD. Includes supplies, outsourced laundry, transaction charges and retail cost. Square verifies only a component fee schedule; actual tender mix, vendor prices and usage must replace this allocation. Therapist labor is entirely in payroll, not double-counted here.
forecast.years.4.costOfSales
- Model assumption
Year 5 authored payroll budget is $409000, including paid owner-management, six part-time employee therapists, reception, employer costs and relief allowance. The private payroll bridge phases paid hours and wage assumptions. BLS is national occupation context and IRS verifies only federal components; neither source quotes this roster.
forecast.years.4.payroll
- Model assumption
Year 5 authored occupancy and other overhead is $110000; mature allocation separates lease/CAM, utilities, insurance, software, marketing, cleaning/repairs and administration. The sources identify compliance/payment context only, not a rent, insurance or expense quote.
forecast.years.4.occupancyAndOther
- Model assumption
Authored $112 mature realized ticket = 55% × $95 Swedish + 30% × $140 extended deep tissue + 15% × $110 hot stone + $1.25 ancillary retail allocation. The $90–$145 sensitivity changes retained price, not a claimed national range. All service prices are net of expected discounts/refunds, excluding tax and pass-through tips. Menu durations are not assumed equivalent across providers.
unitEconomics.driver.model · unitEconomics.driver.low · unitEconomics.driver.high
- Model assumption
Authored 18 completed daily visits, sensitivity 10–22, for all four rooms combined. The six-person roster budgets 120 hands-on hours weekly; base mix requires 106.2. At the unchanged mix, more than about 20.3 daily completions needs additional qualified hours or a redesigned menu. The sensitivity upper bound is a test requiring operational changes, not available base capacity. No source proves local volume.
unitEconomics.volume.model · unitEconomics.volume.low · unitEconomics.volume.high
- Model assumption
Authored six-day, nine-opening-hour schedule; five/seven-day alternatives require matching coverage. Monthly arithmetic uses the shared 4.33-week convention. National appointment-work context is not an observed business schedule.
unitEconomics.daysPerWeek.model · unitEconomics.daysPerWeek.low · unitEconomics.daysPerWeek.high
- Model assumption
Authored mature fixed cost = ($378,000 complete payroll + $102,000 occupancy/other overhead)/12 = $40,000. Payroll is treated as fixed within this roster sensitivity; hiring or schedule changes require recalculation. No free owner labor or therapist commission is assumed.
unitEconomics.fixedCostsMonthly
- Model assumption
Authored contribution fraction 0.85 equals one minus the 15% sales-linked cost allocation. At $112: $6.50 supplies, $4.00 outsourced-laundry allowance, $3.30 blended payment fees, $0.625 retail acquisition cost and $2.375 sales-linked consumables/waste total $16.80. These allocations are assumptions. Paid therapists and owner labor remain in fixed payroll.
unitEconomics.contributionMargin
- Model assumption
Authored monthly sensitivity begins at 55% of mature visits, adds four percentage points monthly until capped at 100%, and displays 18 months. It retains full mature payroll, ticket and contribution assumptions throughout. The industry survey gives context only and does not establish this ramp, its probability or a membership conversion rate.
unitEconomics.ramp.startShare · unitEconomics.ramp.stepPerMonth · unitEconomics.ramp.horizonMonths