Thrift Store input evidence register
45 financial inputs with their assumptions, calculation bases and cited sources.
Read the supported claim, observation period, geography and units together. A source access date records when it was consulted. A model assumption identifies a selected amount or target; a calculated result follows from those inputs and does not establish observed demand or a quoted opening budget.
Case updated October 16, 2026. These notes accompany the complete case methodology and source register.
Dataset use notice: no Creative Commons license or DOI is asserted. Referenced material remains subject to its publisher’s terms.
These notes explain the opening budget, annual forecast and calculator assumptions. Linked sources provide the support described in each note; they do not necessarily confirm the selected amounts. Check scenario assumptions against local quotes and operating records.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Total opening budget · Lower opening budget · Upper opening budget
Authored 150000 USD base opening allocation, not a national average. Base items sum once to 150000. Low 105000 USD fitted 1400 sq ft scope: works 15000, fixtures 8000, systems 4000, deposits/setup 10000, stock 12000, pre-opening 6000, reserve 42000, contingency 8000. High 225000 USD larger 2200 sq ft scope: works 45000, fixtures 22000, systems 10000, deposits/setup 20000, stock 30000, pre-opening 14000, reserve 70000, contingency 14000. Ranges describe different commitment/storage/stock scopes, not sampled percentiles or implied revenue. Existing usable premises, no vehicle purchase, major remediation or building purchase. SBA supports categories only; vendor components and local rules do not certify installed totals.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Selective tenant fit-out and lighting
Selected 28000 USD for light partition/finishes 9000, lighting/electrical work 8000, fitting-room/counter access changes 6000 and signage/installation 5000. Assumes usable HVAC, restrooms and shell. Every suballowance is authored, not a contractor quote; obtain accessibility, use and installed bids. No landlord contribution or NNN offset assumed.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Racks, shelving, counters and sorting fixtures
Selected 14000 USD fixture allowance: garment rails/racks 3000, homeware/display shelving 3500, secure back-room storage and sorting benches 3500, counter/fitting fixtures 2500, installation/freight/purchase tax allowance 1500. Uline H-1977 observed 150 USD single/140 USD five-plus, unassembled and nonlocking, is a component price check only; eight at 140 would be 1120 before freight/tax and cannot establish the whole layout. Use suitable stabilized installed fixtures; no rack quantity, capacity or native paid-file specification is claimed.
- Model assumption
Applies to: POS, item tagging and security setup
Selected 6000 USD: POS/receipt and backup devices 1200, barcode/tagging equipment 800, item/cost-control setup 1000, cameras/security installation 2000 and networking/peripherals/setup 1000. Square Terminal observed 299 USD is one optional device, not a complete quoted system. Hardware purchase cost is separate from recurring software/connectivity in overhead.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Deposits, permits and professional setup
Selected 14000 USD: refundable lease/utilities deposits 8000, license/tax/entity applications allowance 2000, professional/policy setup 3000 and pre-opening insurance 1000. These are authored generic allowances. NYC current license fees vary 85-425 USD by filing period and covered scope; they are an example, not a national permit cost. Base monthly occupancy is paid during trading, not prepaid here. Additional legal holding space, special permits or landlord guarantees require a revised budget.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Opening purchased merchandise
Selected 18000 USD opening owned merchandise at landed acquisition cost: apparel 10000, homewares 6500 and limited furniture 1500. Using selected category prices 16/20/150 USD and 35% landed acquisition-cost ratios implies about 1786 apparel, 929 homeware and 29 furniture equivalent items, not an inspected inventory. Maintain an explicit floor/back-room count and stage buying if layout cannot hold it. Opening stock is an asset; as sold or written off it enters costs once. Buffalo cash-buy apparel supports ownership timing only, not these costs, quantities or furniture supply.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Pre-opening paid work and launch
Selected 9000 USD before trading: paid hiring/training and opening-stock processing 6000, local launch/listings/printed materials 2000 and initial operating/safety supplies 1000. The 6000 includes owner/team work before the annual trading payroll begins; ordinary processing after opening remains in payroll, not charged again here. Hours and wage mix are author-selected; no free volunteers or owner setup labor assumed.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Operating and stock-timing reserve
Selected 50000 USD unrestricted operating/stock-timing reserve after all other opening uses. Shared monthly ramp tests cumulative operating deficits; an additional 15000 USD inventory cash stress is applied separately with no corresponding immediate sale. Combined loss and extra-buy need is compared with this same reserve, not added to opening costs twice. A slower 40% launch share plus three percentage points/month can exhaust it. Local holding periods, tax remittance, processor delays, debt, replacement spending and income tax need a dated cash model; NYC 15-day hold is a scoped example.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Uncommitted opening contingency
Selected 11000 USD uncommitted setup contingency. It is separate from the 50000 reserve and is not counted as cash available in the reserve test. No arbitrary probability or implied vendor price is attached; unspent contingency may be reconsidered only after actual commitments and cash restrictions are known.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Net sales per completed order (base scenario) · Net sales per completed order (lower sensitivity) · Net sales per completed order (upper sensitivity)
Selected 32 USD net basket with 26-38 USD sensitivity bounds. Base 1.6 sold units/order times 20 USD weighted realized unit price: 65% adult apparel at 16 USD, 33% homewares at 20 USD and 2% small furniture at 150 USD. Unit shares sum to one; no price is an observed national mean. Net prices already allow ordinary markdowns/expected refunds and exclude buyer sales tax. Goodwill regional 4.99 shirts/6.99 jeans/9.99 coats are materially lower-priced alternatives, not proof of this curated basket. Bounds test weaker or stronger realized baskets at held contribution fraction; they are not sampled spend percentiles or constant-unit-cost sensitivities.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Completed retail orders per day (base scenario) · Completed retail orders per day (lower sensitivity) · Completed retail orders per day (upper sensitivity)
Selected 65 total completed orders/day, repeats once, with 45-70 domain. An illustrative observational bridge is 220 total store visits/day and 29.545% total completed-order conversion; neither is measured or the native new-buyer cohort input. At base 390 orders/week and 1.6 units/order means 624 sold units/week. A 1050-offered-unit intake at selected 65% acceptance processes 682.5 units/week; sold/accepted gap is available for inventory change/loss and must reconcile to actual stock records. The workload test uses 143.25 of 158 on-site paid hours including breaks/open-close; high 70 orders and proportional intake uses about 152.27. These are feasible average workload tests, not peak-queue or legal-break certification. Higher volume or poorer intake yield needs added paid capacity.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Trading days per week (base scenario) · Trading days per week (lower sensitivity) · Trading days per week (upper sensitivity)
Selected six eight-hour public days, with five-day downside and six-day upper bound. Shared convention 4.33 weeks/month implies 51.96 equivalent trading weeks/year; payroll funds 52 weeks. No seventh-day roster is funded. The example schedule uses Tuesday-Sunday 10am-6pm, not a named jurisdiction's approved hours; replace holidays and local calendar before annual orders are asserted.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Monthly fixed operating costs
Selected 24500 USD/month equals annual 210000 payroll plus 84000 recurring overhead divided by twelve. Owner economic compensation is paid once within payroll. Full roster and overhead apply from launch and across the tested domain; ongoing preparation labor is not a second variable deduction.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Contribution margin
Selected 0.58 contribution = 1 - 0.35 sold-stock landed acquisition cost - 0.03 unsalable stock/shrink at cost - 0.01 variable preparation consumables - 0.005 selling bags - 0.025 effective payment cost. Stock losses are separate cost losses, not a second markdown of sales. Ordinary item cleaning/pricing labor is already paid in payroll. The 35% acquisition share is an assumption after discounts, not a merchant payout quoted as a realized margin. Fee bridge at 32 USD basket, 75% card share and assumed 8% buyer tax: 0.75*(0.026*1.08+0.15/32)=0.024575625 of net sales, rounded up to 2.5%. Tax and tender mix are assumptions; actual rates and nonrefunded fees need the merchant contract.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Opening sales as a share of mature volume · Monthly increase toward mature volume · Forecast horizon (months)
Authored launch starts at 55% of mature completed orders, adds five percentage points monthly and caps at mature volume, displayed over 24 months. This is not an observed resale cohort, probability or promised break-even calendar. Annual year one sums the first twelve shared months, later years hold mature base. A separately labeled slower 40%-plus-three-point path tests reserve vulnerability rather than changing the published base.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Revenue (Year 1)
Round the first twelve shared ramp months once to whole USD: 32 USD net basket times 65 completed orders/day times six days times 4.33 weeks/month, multiplied by 55%,60%,65%,70%,75%,80%,85%,90%,95%,100%,100%,100%. Category bridge and price/traffic uncertainties are documented under unit inputs. Industry participation and merchant observations support the mechanism only, not this unmeasured local volume.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Sold stock, losses and variable selling costs (Year 1)
Round 42% of this year's whole-dollar net sales once: sold stock landed acquisition cost 35%, inventory losses at cost 3%, preparation consumables 1%, bags 0.5% and processing 2.5%. Ordinary markdowns/refunds are already in revenue; salable returns reverse merchandise expense and only unsalable cost enters loss. Native cost/accounting formulas were not checked. This authored aggregate is not a national margin or a vendor-verified estimate.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Paid owner, store team and employer costs (Year 1)
Selected 210000 USD annual full payroll. Owner economic compensation 54000 for 40 paid hours/week (30 on site, ten admin); lead 40 hours at 22 USD; two associates 32 hours each at 18 USD; intake 24 hours at 19 USD, all for 52 weeks. Wage base 183376 USD; selected 12% employer allowance makes 205381.12, rounded 205381; 4619 employer-inclusive relief/leave reserve makes 210000. Regular 168 paid hours = 158 on site plus ten admin. Owner on-site includes six opening/closing hours and 24 public hours; public on-site total 152. The example schedule supplies at least two people during all 48 public hours. Tasks include offered/refused goods, accepted preparation, sales, records, cleanup and ten paid break hours. Relief is additional, not free owner work. BLS national median 17.03 is context only; local wages, overtime, breaks, leave and insurance need review. Owner compensation is economic replacement labor regardless of entity tax treatment.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Premises and other recurring overhead (Year 1)
Selected 84000 USD annual overhead: all-in lease occupancy 43200 (1800 sq ft at assumed 24 USD/sq ft/year, inclusive of stated common charges), utilities/connectivity 8400, insurance 4800, systems/security software 3600, bookkeeping/professional support 4800, marketing 7200, cleaning/upkeep/waste service 9000 and permit/renewal allowance 3000. All are authored allowances, not signed or nationwide quotes. Do not add NNN twice; heavy remediation, unusual disposal, major replacement, interest, depreciation and income taxes are excluded. Normal non-sold item cost is in variable stock losses and ordinary handling labor is in payroll; waste service here pays disposal service, not the same lost-item cost.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Revenue (Year 2)
Hold the same 32 USD net basket, 65 completed orders/day, six days/week and 4.33 weeks/month at mature volume for twelve months, then round once. Constant 2026 dollars, with no inflation, online/channel additions or store expansion. A flat path is a selected scenario, not evidence of stable demand.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Sold stock, losses and variable selling costs (Year 2)
Round 42% of this year's whole-dollar net sales once: sold stock landed acquisition cost 35%, inventory losses at cost 3%, preparation consumables 1%, bags 0.5% and processing 2.5%. Ordinary markdowns/refunds are already in revenue; salable returns reverse merchandise expense and only unsalable cost enters loss. Native cost/accounting formulas were not checked. This authored aggregate is not a national margin or a vendor-verified estimate.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Paid owner, store team and employer costs (Year 2)
Selected 210000 USD annual full payroll. Owner economic compensation 54000 for 40 paid hours/week (30 on site, ten admin); lead 40 hours at 22 USD; two associates 32 hours each at 18 USD; intake 24 hours at 19 USD, all for 52 weeks. Wage base 183376 USD; selected 12% employer allowance makes 205381.12, rounded 205381; 4619 employer-inclusive relief/leave reserve makes 210000. Regular 168 paid hours = 158 on site plus ten admin. Owner on-site includes six opening/closing hours and 24 public hours; public on-site total 152. The example schedule supplies at least two people during all 48 public hours. Tasks include offered/refused goods, accepted preparation, sales, records, cleanup and ten paid break hours. Relief is additional, not free owner work. BLS national median 17.03 is context only; local wages, overtime, breaks, leave and insurance need review. Owner compensation is economic replacement labor regardless of entity tax treatment.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Premises and other recurring overhead (Year 2)
Selected 84000 USD annual overhead: all-in lease occupancy 43200 (1800 sq ft at assumed 24 USD/sq ft/year, inclusive of stated common charges), utilities/connectivity 8400, insurance 4800, systems/security software 3600, bookkeeping/professional support 4800, marketing 7200, cleaning/upkeep/waste service 9000 and permit/renewal allowance 3000. All are authored allowances, not signed or nationwide quotes. Do not add NNN twice; heavy remediation, unusual disposal, major replacement, interest, depreciation and income taxes are excluded. Normal non-sold item cost is in variable stock losses and ordinary handling labor is in payroll; waste service here pays disposal service, not the same lost-item cost.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Revenue (Year 3)
Hold the same 32 USD net basket, 65 completed orders/day, six days/week and 4.33 weeks/month at mature volume for twelve months, then round once. Constant 2026 dollars, with no inflation, online/channel additions or store expansion. A flat path is a selected scenario, not evidence of stable demand.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Sold stock, losses and variable selling costs (Year 3)
Round 42% of this year's whole-dollar net sales once: sold stock landed acquisition cost 35%, inventory losses at cost 3%, preparation consumables 1%, bags 0.5% and processing 2.5%. Ordinary markdowns/refunds are already in revenue; salable returns reverse merchandise expense and only unsalable cost enters loss. Native cost/accounting formulas were not checked. This authored aggregate is not a national margin or a vendor-verified estimate.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Paid owner, store team and employer costs (Year 3)
Selected 210000 USD annual full payroll. Owner economic compensation 54000 for 40 paid hours/week (30 on site, ten admin); lead 40 hours at 22 USD; two associates 32 hours each at 18 USD; intake 24 hours at 19 USD, all for 52 weeks. Wage base 183376 USD; selected 12% employer allowance makes 205381.12, rounded 205381; 4619 employer-inclusive relief/leave reserve makes 210000. Regular 168 paid hours = 158 on site plus ten admin. Owner on-site includes six opening/closing hours and 24 public hours; public on-site total 152. The example schedule supplies at least two people during all 48 public hours. Tasks include offered/refused goods, accepted preparation, sales, records, cleanup and ten paid break hours. Relief is additional, not free owner work. BLS national median 17.03 is context only; local wages, overtime, breaks, leave and insurance need review. Owner compensation is economic replacement labor regardless of entity tax treatment.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Premises and other recurring overhead (Year 3)
Selected 84000 USD annual overhead: all-in lease occupancy 43200 (1800 sq ft at assumed 24 USD/sq ft/year, inclusive of stated common charges), utilities/connectivity 8400, insurance 4800, systems/security software 3600, bookkeeping/professional support 4800, marketing 7200, cleaning/upkeep/waste service 9000 and permit/renewal allowance 3000. All are authored allowances, not signed or nationwide quotes. Do not add NNN twice; heavy remediation, unusual disposal, major replacement, interest, depreciation and income taxes are excluded. Normal non-sold item cost is in variable stock losses and ordinary handling labor is in payroll; waste service here pays disposal service, not the same lost-item cost.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Revenue (Year 4)
Hold the same 32 USD net basket, 65 completed orders/day, six days/week and 4.33 weeks/month at mature volume for twelve months, then round once. Constant 2026 dollars, with no inflation, online/channel additions or store expansion. A flat path is a selected scenario, not evidence of stable demand.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Sold stock, losses and variable selling costs (Year 4)
Round 42% of this year's whole-dollar net sales once: sold stock landed acquisition cost 35%, inventory losses at cost 3%, preparation consumables 1%, bags 0.5% and processing 2.5%. Ordinary markdowns/refunds are already in revenue; salable returns reverse merchandise expense and only unsalable cost enters loss. Native cost/accounting formulas were not checked. This authored aggregate is not a national margin or a vendor-verified estimate.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Paid owner, store team and employer costs (Year 4)
Selected 210000 USD annual full payroll. Owner economic compensation 54000 for 40 paid hours/week (30 on site, ten admin); lead 40 hours at 22 USD; two associates 32 hours each at 18 USD; intake 24 hours at 19 USD, all for 52 weeks. Wage base 183376 USD; selected 12% employer allowance makes 205381.12, rounded 205381; 4619 employer-inclusive relief/leave reserve makes 210000. Regular 168 paid hours = 158 on site plus ten admin. Owner on-site includes six opening/closing hours and 24 public hours; public on-site total 152. The example schedule supplies at least two people during all 48 public hours. Tasks include offered/refused goods, accepted preparation, sales, records, cleanup and ten paid break hours. Relief is additional, not free owner work. BLS national median 17.03 is context only; local wages, overtime, breaks, leave and insurance need review. Owner compensation is economic replacement labor regardless of entity tax treatment.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Premises and other recurring overhead (Year 4)
Selected 84000 USD annual overhead: all-in lease occupancy 43200 (1800 sq ft at assumed 24 USD/sq ft/year, inclusive of stated common charges), utilities/connectivity 8400, insurance 4800, systems/security software 3600, bookkeeping/professional support 4800, marketing 7200, cleaning/upkeep/waste service 9000 and permit/renewal allowance 3000. All are authored allowances, not signed or nationwide quotes. Do not add NNN twice; heavy remediation, unusual disposal, major replacement, interest, depreciation and income taxes are excluded. Normal non-sold item cost is in variable stock losses and ordinary handling labor is in payroll; waste service here pays disposal service, not the same lost-item cost.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Revenue (Year 5)
Hold the same 32 USD net basket, 65 completed orders/day, six days/week and 4.33 weeks/month at mature volume for twelve months, then round once. Constant 2026 dollars, with no inflation, online/channel additions or store expansion. A flat path is a selected scenario, not evidence of stable demand.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Sold stock, losses and variable selling costs (Year 5)
Round 42% of this year's whole-dollar net sales once: sold stock landed acquisition cost 35%, inventory losses at cost 3%, preparation consumables 1%, bags 0.5% and processing 2.5%. Ordinary markdowns/refunds are already in revenue; salable returns reverse merchandise expense and only unsalable cost enters loss. Native cost/accounting formulas were not checked. This authored aggregate is not a national margin or a vendor-verified estimate.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Paid owner, store team and employer costs (Year 5)
Selected 210000 USD annual full payroll. Owner economic compensation 54000 for 40 paid hours/week (30 on site, ten admin); lead 40 hours at 22 USD; two associates 32 hours each at 18 USD; intake 24 hours at 19 USD, all for 52 weeks. Wage base 183376 USD; selected 12% employer allowance makes 205381.12, rounded 205381; 4619 employer-inclusive relief/leave reserve makes 210000. Regular 168 paid hours = 158 on site plus ten admin. Owner on-site includes six opening/closing hours and 24 public hours; public on-site total 152. The example schedule supplies at least two people during all 48 public hours. Tasks include offered/refused goods, accepted preparation, sales, records, cleanup and ten paid break hours. Relief is additional, not free owner work. BLS national median 17.03 is context only; local wages, overtime, breaks, leave and insurance need review. Owner compensation is economic replacement labor regardless of entity tax treatment.
- Model assumption
Applies to: Premises and other recurring overhead (Year 5)
Selected 84000 USD annual overhead: all-in lease occupancy 43200 (1800 sq ft at assumed 24 USD/sq ft/year, inclusive of stated common charges), utilities/connectivity 8400, insurance 4800, systems/security software 3600, bookkeeping/professional support 4800, marketing 7200, cleaning/upkeep/waste service 9000 and permit/renewal allowance 3000. All are authored allowances, not signed or nationwide quotes. Do not add NNN twice; heavy remediation, unusual disposal, major replacement, interest, depreciation and income taxes are excluded. Normal non-sold item cost is in variable stock losses and ordinary handling labor is in payroll; waste service here pays disposal service, not the same lost-item cost.