Tire Shop input evidence register
44 numeric input paths with their assumptions, calculation bases and cited sources.
Case updated September 15, 2026. This technical appendix accompanies the complete case methodology and source register.
Dataset use notice: no Creative Commons license or DOI is asserted. Referenced material remains subject to its publisher’s terms.
A linked reference can support scope without confirming an exact forecast. Assumption entries identify values that still require local validation. Each field path identifies an input in the common business record.
- Model assumption
Authored three-bay opening allocation. Current vendor pages anchor only selected machines and lifts, while SBA and the California example identify cost categories. They do not verify a complete site, equipment package, inventory, insurance or reserve.
capital.total · capital.low · capital.high · capital.items.0.amount · capital.items.1.amount · capital.items.2.amount · capital.items.3.amount · capital.items.4.amount · capital.items.5.amount · capital.items.6.amount
- Model assumption
Authored completed-order path. Year three is 12 shop-wide orders × $650 × 6 days × 50 weeks. Census establishes the sector and the product establishes a retail revenue structure, but neither proves local traffic, conversion, order mix, price or collection.
forecast.years.0.revenue · forecast.years.1.revenue · forecast.years.2.revenue · forecast.years.3.revenue · forecast.years.4.revenue
- Model assumption
Authored 55% pool for tire inventory, service materials, card fees and other sales-linked leakage. Statutory tire fees and waste handling need separate treatment; replace the pool with invoices, receipts, rebates, returns, credits, shrink and disposal records.
forecast.years.0.costOfSales · forecast.years.1.costOfSales · forecast.years.2.costOfSales · forecast.years.3.costOfSales · forecast.years.4.costOfSales
- Model assumption
Authored paid owner-manager, service-advisor, technician and support schedule with employer-cost allowance. National occupation pay, federal payroll guidance and training duties are context only; local offers and staffing capacity are required.
forecast.years.0.payroll · forecast.years.1.payroll · forecast.years.2.payroll · forecast.years.3.payroll · forecast.years.4.payroll
- Model assumption
Authored rent, utilities, equipment, insurance, software, marketing and administration schedule. It is not a local lease, utilities, maintenance, insurance or advertising quote.
forecast.years.0.occupancyAndOther · forecast.years.1.occupancyAndOther · forecast.years.2.occupancyAndOther · forecast.years.3.occupancyAndOther · forecast.years.4.occupancyAndOther
- Model assumption
Authored completed-vehicle-order break-even bridge. The $650 order, 12 orders, 45% contribution, six-day schedule, fixed cost and ramp must reconcile to visitors, conversion, tire units, service lines, direct costs, technician minutes, bay minutes, rework and collection.
unitEconomics.driver.model · unitEconomics.driver.low · unitEconomics.driver.high · unitEconomics.volume.model · unitEconomics.volume.low · unitEconomics.volume.high · unitEconomics.daysPerWeek.model · unitEconomics.daysPerWeek.low · unitEconomics.daysPerWeek.high · unitEconomics.fixedCostsMonthly · unitEconomics.contributionMargin · unitEconomics.ramp.startShare · unitEconomics.ramp.stepPerMonth · unitEconomics.ramp.horizonMonths