How many orders does a ghost kitchen need per day?
Calculate ghost-kitchen break-even from accepted orders, collected average check, contribution, delivery channels and fixed operating cost.
Published by StartFigures · Editorial standards · Correction guidance
The StartFigures ghost-kitchen case needs about 163 accepted paid orders per operating day to cover simplified operating costs. At $32 of blended collected revenue and a 57% contribution margin, each order contributes $18.24. With $90,000 of monthly fixed costs and seven operating days per week, the continuous threshold is about 4,934 orders per month.
The mature case uses 175 accepted orders per day. That leaves a buffer of only about 12 orders above the simplified threshold, so small changes in marketplace fees, food cost, refunds, labor or average check can remove the operating surplus.
The $32 collected order value, 175-order day, 57% contribution and $90,000 monthly fixed cost are authored assumptions. They are not a menu price, marketplace quote, local order forecast or delivery-service guarantee.
Define one accepted paid order
An accepted paid order is a distinct customer transaction the kitchen accepts for preparation and records in one channel. The public $32 value blends direct and marketplace orders after applying a consistent revenue policy. It is not the advertised basket amount when taxes, tips, delivery charges, discounts, refunds or marketplace settlements are treated elsewhere.
The matching paid workbook uses the E02 restaurant engine. Direct pickup, direct delivery where supported and each third-party marketplace retain their own order volume and matching average check. The same transaction cannot appear in its channel and again as additional revenue.
Follow an order from acceptance to settlement
| Stage | Record | Control question |
|---|---|---|
| Accept | Channel, time, items, modifiers, price, promotion and promised handoff | Was this one valid accepted order? |
| Produce | Station time, ingredients, package, temperature, remake and labor | Could the kitchen deliver the order safely and on time? |
| Handoff | Accuracy, staging, courier or customer, seal and elapsed time | Who took custody and when? |
| Settle | Gross payment, tax, tip, delivery charge, commission, refund and cash | What revenue and contribution did the order actually create? |
An app order count does not prove a profitable order. Cancellations, closed-channel rejects, promotions, remakes, refunds and uncollected transactions need explicit treatment.
Calculate order-level break-even
At a 57% contribution margin, $32 of collected order revenue leaves $18.24 contribution per accepted paid order after food, packaging, marketplace commissions, payment fees, refunds, promotions and other order-linked costs.
$90,000 ÷ $18.24 ÷ 7 ÷ 4.33 = 162.8 accepted paid orders per day.
At 175 daily orders, monthly volume is 175 × 7 × 4.33 = 5,304 orders. Monthly revenue is $169,736, contribution is about $96,750, and simplified operating surplus is about $6,750 before depreciation, financing, income tax, replacement capital, working-capital timing and distributions.
Stress check, contribution and fixed cost
| Case | Assumptions | Orders/day |
|---|---|---|
| Lower collected check | $24/order · 57% margin · $90,000 fixed/month | 217.1 |
| Base | $32/order · 57% margin · $90,000 fixed/month | 162.8 |
| Higher collected check | $42/order · 57% margin · $90,000 fixed/month | 124.0 |
| More direct-cost leakage | $32/order · 47% margin · $90,000 fixed/month | 197.4 |
| Higher fixed cost | $32/order · 57% margin · $105,000 fixed/month | 189.9 |
The lower-check and lower-contribution cases exceed the 175-order base. Accepting more orders is useful only when the kitchen can preserve food control, order accuracy, service time and contribution through the peak window.
Use limited-service restaurant context carefully
Census defines NAICS 722513 around limited-service restaurants where customers generally order or select items and pay before eating; establishments may provide takeout or off-site delivery. Its 2023 employer table reports 270,088 establishments, 4,965,080 employees and $103.6 billion of annual payroll. This category includes many restaurants that are not delivery-only kitchens. Census NAICS and 2023 County Business Patterns.
The FDA Food Code is a model for jurisdictions, so the adopted edition, local amendments and enforcing authority must be verified for the actual kitchen. It does not create one national restaurant permit. FDA Food Code 2022 and state adoption information.
DoorDash publishes current marketplace plan information for merchants, and Square publishes payment pricing. These are vendor terms and examples, not universal fee benchmarks; the actual contract, channel, order mix, promotions, refunds, taxes and tips determine the result. DoorDash Marketplace and Square pricing.
Read the five-year case
| Year | Revenue | Operating result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | $900,000 | -$383,000 |
| 2 | $1,450,000 | -$182,000 |
| 3 | $2,038,400 | $81,888 |
| 4 | $2,350,000 | $223,000 |
| 5 | $2,600,000 | $324,000 |
The next test is four ordinary paid weeks, not one discounted launch. Reconcile accepted orders, menu mix, station minutes, late or rejected orders, packaging, refunds, commissions, payment fees, labor, repeat cohorts, settlement and cash by channel and daypart.
The Ghost Kitchen case contains the complete $650,000 allocation and forecast. Its evidence register separates sources from assumptions, while the business plan and financial model explain food controls, capacity and E02 channel adaptation.