U.S. businesses · USDSide-by-side scenarios · United States · USD
Choose between a production-led bakery and a coffee-led shop by checking product mix, paid preparation time and site capacity. Lower opening cost helps only when the chosen menu can cover its roster and occupancy. Each column retains its own operating scope and annual or monthly basis.
A shared metric definition does not make two businesses identical. Staffing, premises, equipment and throughput belong to the individual scenario.
This U.S. planning case allocates $260,000 to a 1,400 sq ft leased retail bakery. The launch decision depends on repeat paid demand, a fully paid production roster and cash that covers the opening ramp.
Record updated
Read this case’s assumptions and evidence →This planning case allocates $155,000 to a 1,000 sq ft leased U.S. neighborhood coffee shop. Test whether repeat morning orders, the drink-and-food basket and complete paid coverage can support the premises before taking a long lease.
Record updated
Read this case’s assumptions and evidence →Amounts come from the same content and calculation functions used on the detailed business pages. Compare the metric together with its unit and period.
| Metric and definition | Bakery | Coffee Shop |
|---|---|---|
| Opening capitalOne-time base budget, including the recorded reserve | $260,000 | $155,000 |
| Opening capital scenariosDifferent launch scopes; endpoints are not confidence intervals | $133,500–$480,000 | $100,000–$600,000 |
| Year 3 revenueAnnual modeled sales | $715,177 | $556,489 |
| Year 3 EBITDABefore interest, tax, depreciation and amortization | $116,528 | $93,672 |
| Year 3 EBITDA marginEBITDA divided by revenue; not net margin or owner distributions | 16.3% | 16.8% |
| Price per sold unitRead each unit label; the units can differ | $12.40Average ticket | $8.50Average ticket |
| Daily volumeUse the scope above to interpret crew, route, machine or site capacity | 185Transactions per day | 210Transactions per day |
| Trading days per weekBase unit-economics schedule | 6 | 6 |
| Monthly fixed costsUnit-economics input; distinct from annual expense rows | $32,008 | $25,500 |
| Contribution marginUnit-economics input, not annual EBITDA margin | 70.0% | 64.0% |
| Monthly break-even revenueContribution covers the fixed-cost assumption | $45,726 | $39,844 |
| Calculator operating break-evenFirst modeled month covering fixed operating costs; not investment payback | Month 9Same operating base · 18-month horizon | Month 11Separate calculator ramp · 18-month horizon |
These modeled values do not establish a better investment. Compare the same local cost boundary: paid owner or replacement work, staffing, accessible funding and dates of receipts and payments. A cheaper opening fails the test if its required workload exceeds practical capacity or its cash floor is breached before collections arrive.
Opening costs are one-time commitments. The expense composition below uses Year 3 annual amounts and each case’s own accounting labels.
Build-out and equipment carry most of the opening cost. The $42,000 working capital reserve is a planning allowance. The sales ramp produces about $41,630 of cumulative operating losses before the first profitable month, leaving little buffer for collection delays, financing or unexpected costs. A separate cash-flow forecast is needed to test whether the reserve is adequate.
The $155,000 opening allocation includes a $28,000 reserve. All amounts require delivered site and equipment quotes. The separate constant-cost calculator ramp produces cumulative operating losses larger than that reserve; the lighter annual payroll schedule is a different case and does not prove cash sufficiency.
Five model years from each forecast. EBITDA uses all three recorded expense rows; a margin difference alone does not identify its cause.
| Model year | Bakery | Coffee Shop |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1Revenue / EBITDA / EBITDA margin | $509,564−$27,401 EBITDA · -5.4% | $389,542$22,860 EBITDA · 5.9% |
| Year 2Revenue / EBITDA / EBITDA margin | $710,112$112,982 EBITDA · 15.9% | $506,405$73,712 EBITDA · 14.6% |
| Year 3Revenue / EBITDA / EBITDA margin | $715,177$116,528 EBITDA · 16.3% | $556,489$93,672 EBITDA · 16.8% |
| Year 4Revenue / EBITDA / EBITDA margin | $751,000$124,400 EBITDA · 16.6% | $584,313$99,515 EBITDA · 17.0% |
| Year 5Revenue / EBITDA / EBITDA margin | $789,000$133,000 EBITDA · 16.9% | $612,138$105,359 EBITDA · 17.2% |
One operating base links the first 36 monthly periods to Years 1–3. A $12.40 ticket, 185 mature transactions per day and six days per week use 4.33 weeks per month (51.96 per year). Sales start at 52% of mature volume and add 3.5 percentage points each month, capped at 100% in month 15. Food and packaging are 30% of revenue; the full annual $243,100 paid-labor allowance and $140,996 overhead run from opening. Years 4–5 retain the separately authored growth and funded expense schedules. All figures are assumptions; EBITDA is not owner cash.
Years 1–3 and the opening calculator ramp use one operating base within whole-dollar rounding. Years 4–5 follow the stated annual assumptions.
| Check | Annual forecast | Monthly calculator base |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 revenue | $509,564 | $509,564 |
| Year 1 operating result | −$27,401 | −$27,401 |
| Year 2 revenue | $710,112 | $710,112 |
| Year 2 operating result | $112,982 | $112,982 |
| Year 3 revenue | $715,177 | $715,177 |
| Year 3 operating result | $116,528 | $116,528 |
| Year 3 / full-volume annual revenue | $715,177 | $715,177 |
| Year 3 / full-volume annual operating result | $116,528 | $116,528 |
Year 1 uses months 1–12, Year 2 months 13–24 and Year 3 months 25–36. Full-volume rows use mature monthly sales and operating result × 12. The calculator holds price, days, contribution and fixed costs constant; an annual price, staffing or cost change can explain a separate path. Sliders do not change this comparison. Neither column measures cash flow, owner distributions or payback. Agreement tests arithmetic, not demand or cash funding. Input basis.
Every annual row is a selected scenario. Years 1 and 2 use about 70% and 91% of Year 3 sales, with lower payroll and overhead allowances; Years 4 and 5 add chosen sales and cost growth. Product costs are about 28% of sales. The calculator instead uses a 36% sales-linked cost envelope, $25,500 monthly fixed costs and its own monthly ramp. Its results are a separate sensitivity, not the monthly cash flow behind this annual table.
Annual revenue and EBITDA use the annual forecast. Break-even uses a separate monthly calculator sensitivity; it does not establish when the annual forecast covers its costs.
| Check | Annual forecast | Monthly calculator base |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 revenue | $389,542 | $396,500 |
| Year 1 operating result | $22,860 | −$52,240 |
| Year 2 revenue | $506,405 | $552,550 |
| Year 2 operating result | $73,712 | $47,632 |
| Year 3 revenue | $556,489 | $556,492 |
| Year 3 operating result | $93,672 | $50,155 |
| Year 3 / full-volume annual revenue | $556,489 | $556,492 |
| Year 3 / full-volume annual operating result | $93,672 | $50,155 |
Year 1 uses months 1–12, Year 2 months 13–24 and Year 3 months 25–36. Full-volume rows use mature monthly sales and operating result × 12. The calculator holds price, days, contribution and fixed costs constant; an annual price, staffing or cost change can explain a separate path. Sliders do not change this comparison. Neither column measures cash flow, owner distributions or payback. Agreement tests arithmetic, not demand or cash funding. Input basis.
Monthly contribution after fixed operating costs, on a common dollar scale. This is the opening-volume ramp; it is neither cumulative cash nor a seasonal forecast.
| Month | Bakery | Coffee Shop |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | −$10,314 | −$10,067 |
| 2 | −$8,854 | −$9,028 |
| 3 | −$7,394 | −$7,989 |
| 4 | −$5,934 | −$6,950 |
| 5 | −$4,474 | −$5,911 |
| 6 | −$3,014 | −$4,873 |
| 7 | −$1,553 | −$3,834 |
| 8 | −$93 | −$2,795 |
| 9 | $1,367 | −$1,756 |
| 10 | $2,827 | −$718 |
| 11 | $4,287 | $321 |
| 12 | $5,747 | $1,360 |
| 13 | $7,208 | $2,399 |
| 14 | $8,668 | $3,438 |
| 15 | $9,711 | $4,180 |
| 16 | $9,711 | $4,180 |
| 17 | $9,711 | $4,180 |
| 18 | $9,711 | $4,180 |
Years 1–3 and the opening calculator ramp use one operating base within whole-dollar rounding. Years 4–5 follow the stated annual assumptions.
Annual revenue and EBITDA use the annual forecast. Break-even uses a separate monthly calculator sensitivity; it does not establish when the annual forecast covers its costs.
Only daily volume changes below. Price, trading days, fixed costs, contribution margin and the ramp rule remain at the recorded base inputs. These endpoints are capacity assumptions, not probabilities.
| Case | Low volume | Base volume | High volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| BakeryTransactions per day | 120Not reached | 185Month 9 | 250Month 3 |
| Coffee ShopTransactions per day | 130Not reached | 210Month 11 | 300Month 4 |
Check which operating duties you can perform, which need qualified paid cover and which commitments remain during an absence. A comparison stays conditional on local demand, usable capacity and cash funding; recorded review scope remains separate.
Reviewed strengths, tradeoffs and owner-fit findings are not yet available for this case.
This U.S. planning case allocates $260,000 to a 1,400 sq ft leased retail bakery. The launch decision depends on repeat paid demand, a fully paid production roster and cash that covers the opening ramp.
Review the operating assumptions →Reviewed strengths, tradeoffs and owner-fit findings are not yet available for this case.
This planning case allocates $155,000 to a 1,000 sq ft leased U.S. neighborhood coffee shop. Test whether repeat morning orders, the drink-and-food basket and complete paid coverage can support the premises before taking a long lease.
Review the operating assumptions →| Dimension | Bakery | Coffee Shop |
|---|---|---|
| Weighted total / 10 | 4.7business-ideas-v1 | 4.7business-ideas-v1 |
| Barrier to entry15% weight · Higher means easier entry. | 5.0 / 10 A retail bakery can use conventional equipment and trained employees, but premises preparation and coordinated production setup create substantial commitments. Assessment basisAnchor 5: conventional premises and available equipment with a substantial committed opening. BLS documents trainable baking work and FDA explains the jurisdictional basis of food-service rules. The actual staffed retail premises requires production equipment, food-safe workflow and local approval checks. This supports established access rather than scarce specialist entry, while fixed bakery fit-out and a coordinated seven-FTE launch prevent anchor 6. The approved opening allocations are illustrative inputs, not independently quoted construction costs. Local premises suitability and applicable requirements remain to be checked. [bls-bakers][scoring-fda-food-code] | 5.0 / 10 A staffed neighborhood cafe uses available equipment and trainable service roles, but fit-out and coordinated food-service setup require committed spending. Assessment basisAnchor 5: conventional premises and equipment with substantial committed setup. The supplier's equipment list and FDA's model-code explanation support the physical and regulatory work involved. The actual leased cafe needs preparation, refrigeration, washing and customer-service arrangements; local approvals and landlord requirements remain site-specific. Its fixed shop and five-FTE launch prevent the smaller setup of anchor 6. The record's broad capital range and the separate Coffee research pack do not verify this site's installed cost or access. [scoring-coffee-equipment][scoring-fda-food-code] |
| Competition20% weight · Higher means more favorable competitive conditions. | 4.0 / 10 The assumed neighborhood market is accessible but crowded with baked-goods alternatives, so ordinary product and service differences offer limited protection. Assessment basisAnchor 4: accessible but crowded conditions with common differences and price comparison. BLS describes bakery production in specialty shops and grocery settings; USDA identifies alternative food-purchase channels. Crowding is an explicit scenario assumption about a plausible competitive catchment, not a measured national or local count. Freshness, convenience and assortment are assumed ordinary differences, with no documented niche or protected customer access. The score requires local comparison of grocery, bakery and food-service alternatives before use for a particular site. [bls-bakers][scoring-usda-food-outlets] | 4.0 / 10 The assumed crowded neighborhood offers easy coffee substitution, with limited protection from ordinary menu and service differences. Assessment basisAnchor 4: accessible but crowded conditions with common differences and price comparison. NCA's original research documents substantial home preparation as well as away-from-home use; it does not count competing cafes. This conditional catchment includes chain and independent coffee offers plus home preparation, without a captive audience or proven niche. Convenience and drink quality are assumed ordinary differences, not demonstrated pricing power. Map local alternatives, price baskets, footfall and opening hours before treating the scenario as a site assessment. [scoring-nca-spring-2026] |
| Demand stability25% weight · Higher means more stable demand. | 6.0 / 10 Everyday bread and snack purchases can recur through the year, while discretionary treats and substitution constrain the store's dependable demand. Assessment basisAnchor 6: repeat demand across much of the year and multiple customers, with spending sensitivity. BLS identifies everyday baked-food use and USDA distinguishes purchase channels. The scenario assumes a neighborhood mix of ordinary bread, snack and treat purchases, without adding a wholesale contract or celebration-only format. Routine occasions support the baseline, while customers can trade down or buy elsewhere. No store-specific seasonal or retention evidence establishes the documented, manageable fluctuations required by anchor 7. Local product mix and weak trading periods need review. [bls-bakers][scoring-usda-food-outlets] | 6.0 / 10 Habitual coffee consumption supports repeated visits, but drinking coffee does not guarantee buying it from this cafe. Assessment basisAnchor 6: repeat demand through much of the year with channel and spending sensitivity. The Spring 2026 NCA release supports habitual coffee use and identifies home preparation as a major alternative. The scenario assumes unrelated neighborhood customers with ordinary morning and daytime purchases, without an exclusive office account. Paid cafe visits can be reduced or moved elsewhere, and no local seasonal or retention record establishes anchor 7's manageable fluctuations. Neither national consumption nor the modeled transaction target verifies store-level demand. [scoring-nca-spring-2026] |
| Margin ceiling20% weight · Higher means greater supported operating-profit potential. | 4.0 / 10 A surplus is possible within the reconciled planning scenario, but the seven-FTE payroll envelope leaves limited protection against realistic staffing and sales pressure. Assessment basisAnchor 4: a conditional mature surplus with limited room for routine cost variation. the third-year forecast remains an illustrative assumption; its paid-labor budget is unchanged. Its common sales-and-cost screen is positive, but a larger payroll correction combined with softer sales removes that buffer. BLS confirms that production and owner-management work both need coverage; the recorded seven-FTE budget has a tight average pay envelope before benefits and other employer costs. Full paid owner labor, role mix, local rates, waste and equipment maintenance must fit the costs for this assessment to apply. These binding staffing constraints prevent anchor 5; uncertainty alone is not the score. EBITDA excludes depreciation, interest, tax and replacement investment. [bls-bakers][scoring-food-managers][cleaning-irs-payroll-2026] | 4.0 / 10 The cafe can retain a conditional operating surplus, but staffing costs and transaction density leave limited room for ordinary pressure. Assessment basisAnchor 4: a mature surplus with a constrained operating buffer. The existing third-year model covers its stated costs in the common screen, while a larger payroll correction combined with softer sales removes that surplus. Supplier and BLS guidance identify equipment and daily management obligations; they do not verify sales or a roster. Five FTE, paid owner work, employer burden, preparation, cleaning, food waste, rent and maintenance must fit the recorded allowances. Validate local pay, peak service capacity and menu mix before relying on the result. Those staffing and traffic constraints prevent anchor 5; EBITDA excludes depreciation, interest, tax and replacement investment. [scoring-coffee-equipment][scoring-food-managers][cleaning-irs-payroll-2026] |
| Owner dependency20% weight · Higher means less dependence on the owner's continuous involvement. | 4.0 / 10 Employees can make and sell routine products, but daily production planning, staffing and quality decisions remain with the owner. Assessment basisAnchor 4: independent routine staff work with daily owner coordination. BLS describes the management duties of a retail bakery owner. The seven-FTE format supports delegated production and counter work, conditionally on trained staff and the stated paid-labor budget. No allocated lead shift, decision authority or funded management replacement is documented, so headcount alone cannot support anchor 5. The assessment does not add an eighth worker or assume the owner works unpaid. Confirm production, ordering, opening/closing and absence responsibilities in a roster. [bls-bakers][scoring-food-managers] | 4.0 / 10 Employees can prepare and sell the menu, while the owner remains responsible for daily staffing, purchasing and service decisions. Assessment basisAnchor 4: routine service is delegated but daily owner coordination remains necessary. BLS describes the management responsibilities that accompany food service. The five-FTE format conditionally supports trained counter and preparation staff; it does not identify a lead with funded authority and cover across shifts. The owner remains inside the existing payroll envelope rather than being treated as free labor. No documented lead and procedures establish anchor 5. Confirm ordering, food-safety supervision, complaints, opening/closing and absence arrangements in the actual roster. [scoring-food-managers] |
Scores are editorial judgments about the stated operating scopes. They are not probabilities of success or investment recommendations. Read the five-component methodology →
The figures here are calculated from the website’s scenario records. Review the online previews and product details for each business before choosing a product.
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Definitions are consistent, but the cases are not normalized to one city, staffing level, building or sales unit. Annual forecasts and monthly unit-economics sensitivities can use different fixed-cost assumptions.
Illustrative modeled scenario. This StartFigures scenario models a 1,400 sq ft leased retail bakery trading six days per week. Mature monthly sales are $12.40 per transaction × 185 daily transactions × six days × 4.33 weeks = $59,598.12. Sales begin at 52% of mature volume and increase by 3.5 percentage points each month, capped at 100%. Years 1–3 sum the corresponding twelve-month periods of this ramp. Food and packaging cost 30% of sales, leaving a 70% contribution margin. Payroll is $243,100 annually from opening, including working-owner labor and employer costs; overhead is $140,996 annually. Together they equal $32,008 in monthly fixed operating costs. Each expense is counted once. Annual figures round to whole USD after monthly aggregation. Years 4–5 assume further sales growth and higher payroll and overhead; the calculator holds costs constant to describe the opening ramp and Year 3. The $260,000 opening budget and $133,500–$480,000 range are illustrative project scopes, not independently verified national averages. Local lease quotes, a paid staffing roster, waste, production capacity and demand must be checked. The seven-FTE staffing target is not evidence that the payroll allowance can cover local hiring needs. Sources provide occupational and budget-planning context rather than verification of the selected amounts. Interest, tax, depreciation, amortization, loan principal, replacement capital, working-capital timing and owner distributions are excluded. Operating break-even does not establish cash-flow break-even or recovery of the opening investment. These website calculations have not been checked against a purchased workbook. The practical decision is whether ordinary weekday orders can fund production, counter coverage and the working owner within the stated payroll. BLS employee wages do not price self-employed owner work or establish this seven-FTE roster. Test recipes from purchased quantities through usable yield, sold portions and unsold production; the 30% food-and-packaging share has no separately verified waste rate. Obtain delivered equipment and fit-out bids and identify rent, recoveries, utilities, card fees and maintenance within the overhead allowance. Redesign the scope or defer commitment if paid coverage exceeds the allowance, achievable orders remain below the operating threshold, or confirmed cash cannot fund the next payroll and project payments.
Opening allocation. Build-out and equipment carry most of the opening cost. The $42,000 working capital reserve is a planning allowance. The sales ramp produces about $41,630 of cumulative operating losses before the first profitable month, leaving little buffer for collection delays, financing or unexpected costs. A separate cash-flow forecast is needed to test whether the reserve is adequate.
Annual forecast. One operating base links the first 36 monthly periods to Years 1–3. A $12.40 ticket, 185 mature transactions per day and six days per week use 4.33 weeks per month (51.96 per year). Sales start at 52% of mature volume and add 3.5 percentage points each month, capped at 100% in month 15. Food and packaging are 30% of revenue; the full annual $243,100 paid-labor allowance and $140,996 overhead run from opening. Years 4–5 retain the separately authored growth and funded expense schedules. All figures are assumptions; EBITDA is not owner cash.
The evidence register explains the assumptions behind each budget, forecast and calculator input. “Assumption” means the amount was selected for the scenario; the linked reference does not independently establish that amount.
The $260,000 opening budget covers the modeled bakery launch. The $133,500–$480,000 range represents different premises and equipment scopes. These amounts are planning assumptions; SBA provides a budgeting framework rather than project quotes. The $42,000 reserve is close to the modeled $41,630 cumulative operating loss before the first profitable month. Financing, cash timing and unexpected costs can require additional funding.
Years 1–3 sum months 1–12, 13–24 and 25–36 of the sales ramp. Revenue is $509,564, $710,112 and $715,177 respectively. Food and packaging cost 30% of sales, rounded to whole USD. Annual payroll is $243,100 from opening, including working-owner labor and employer costs; annual overhead is $140,996. Together they equal $32,008 × 12. Years 4–5 assume revenue of $751,000 and $789,000 with higher payroll and overhead, rather than constant Year 3 costs. These are scenario assumptions. BLS and SBA provide context rather than verification of the selected values.
The base case uses a $12.40 average ticket, 185 daily transactions, six trading days per week and 4.33 weeks per month. Sensitivities test a $9–$16 ticket, 120–250 daily transactions and five–seven trading days. Sales start at 52% of mature volume and increase by 3.5 percentage points monthly; maturity occurs in month 15 within the 18-month chart. Food and packaging cost 30% of sales, leaving a 70% contribution margin. Payroll and overhead total $384,096 annually, or $32,008 monthly. Break-even revenue is $45,725.71 per month, requiring 142 whole daily transactions at the base ticket and schedule. The ramp first covers fixed operating costs in month 9. Price, demand, staffing capacity and the ramp require local validation.
Illustrative modeled scenario. We model a 1,000 sq ft leased neighborhood cafe trading six days per week, with a five-FTE maturity target and paid working-owner labor within the payroll allowance. The $8.50 basket assumes beverages with some food purchases; 210 mature daily transactions and the price/volume bounds are selected planning inputs, not observations. Broad vendor guidance supplies alternative opening scopes, not project quotes: the low case uses a fitted counter-service site; the high case uses a larger primary-metro shop with extensive renovation and new equipment. The $155,000 base allocation, its line items and $28,000 reserve remain assumptions. The annual forecast uses roughly 70%, 91%, 100%, 105% and 110% of its Year 3 sales base. Annual product cost is about 28% of revenue; Year 3 payroll and overhead total $307,000. The separate web sensitivity uses a 36% variable-cost envelope and $306,000 of annualized fixed costs, starts at 52% of full-volume sales and adds 3.5 percentage points monthly. It uses 4.33 weeks per month. The unallocated difference between these cost boundaries is not a verified processing or waste allowance; resolve it from invoices, recipe yields, payment statements and the actual roster before selecting one decision budget. The calculator holds contribution and fixed costs constant as price, transactions and days change; it does not change annual staffing or test peak queues. Its opening operating deficit exceeds the listed reserve, while the lighter annual staffing allowances have no complete opening shift schedule. Neither path certifies the bank balance. BLS baker duties are context for any food preparation, not a barista wage quote; food-service management and IRS guidance identify work and employer taxes without verifying local rates, benefit costs or coverage. A timed morning rush must include preparation, food handling, cleaning, breaks and closing. Replace occupancy with base rent, recoveries, utilities, insurance, software and maintenance. Redesign or defer the site if achievable ordinary orders, safe peak capacity and a fully paid roster cannot cover one another. Loan principal, interest, tax, capital replacement, working-capital timing and owner distributions require a separate dated cash plan. These website illustrations do not establish the formulas or inventory of a purchased file.
Opening allocation. The $155,000 opening allocation includes a $28,000 reserve. All amounts require delivered site and equipment quotes. The separate constant-cost calculator ramp produces cumulative operating losses larger than that reserve; the lighter annual payroll schedule is a different case and does not prove cash sufficiency.
Annual forecast. Every annual row is a selected scenario. Years 1 and 2 use about 70% and 91% of Year 3 sales, with lower payroll and overhead allowances; Years 4 and 5 add chosen sales and cost growth. Product costs are about 28% of sales. The calculator instead uses a 36% sales-linked cost envelope, $25,500 monthly fixed costs and its own monthly ramp. Its results are a separate sensitivity, not the monthly cash flow behind this annual table.
The evidence register explains the assumptions behind each budget, forecast and calculator input. “Assumption” means the amount was selected for the scenario; the linked reference does not independently establish that amount.
Selected opening allocation and alternative site/equipment scopes. Broad vendor guidance and the SBA budgeting method do not supply delivered bids for this cafe. The $28,000 reserve is smaller than the separate constant-cost ramp deficit. Confirm lease, installed equipment, deposits, launch spending and dated funding before treating it as available runway.
All 20 annual values are selected assumptions. Sales use approximately 70%, 91%, 100%, 105% and 110% of the Year 3 base; product costs are about 28% of sales. The opening payroll and overhead allowances are lower than maturity and do not specify a complete shift roster. These annual values differ from the constant-cost monthly sensitivity; neither BLS nor vendor budgeting guidance verifies local demand, cafe wages or this schedule.
Chosen $8.50 ticket, 210 daily transactions and six trading days, with the published price, volume and schedule bounds. The 64% contribution margin implies a 36% variable-cost envelope, while $25,500 is the selected monthly fixed cost. The monthly ramp starts at 52% of full volume and adds 3.5 percentage points, reaching full volume in month 15. These inputs are a separate sensitivity from annual product costs and staged payroll, with no verified component breakdown or local launch observations.
Use the page citation and revision date when referring to these modeled scenarios. Sources and their scope are listed below.
Data version bce5e5f34d3b23d8 · Records updated through . Source access dates are listed below. This version identifies the supplied content; the page URL may change with later revisions.
StartFigures. (2026). Bakery vs Coffee Shop: modeled scenario comparison (Version bce5e5f34d3b23d8) [Modeled scenario data set]. https://startfigures.com/compare/bakery-vs-coffee-shop/
StartFigures. “Bakery vs Coffee Shop: modeled scenario comparison.” Modeled scenario data set, version bce5e5f34d3b23d8, records updated through 2026-10-04, https://startfigures.com/compare/bakery-vs-coffee-shop/.
StartFigures. “Bakery vs Coffee Shop: modeled scenario comparison.” Modeled scenario data set. Records updated through 2026-10-04. Version bce5e5f34d3b23d8. https://startfigures.com/compare/bakery-vs-coffee-shop/.
Dataset use notice: these are modeled cases, not measured national averages. No Creative Commons license or DOI is asserted. Referenced material remains subject to its publisher’s terms.
Sources support the fields and context stated in each evidence entry. A reference link is not certification of an entire forecast.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · primary · Accessed
Occupational training, bakery duties, employer types and May 2025 pay context. Supports scoring constraints; neither store sales nor the approved Bakery payroll is independently verified.
Source key: bls-bakers · Used by Bakery, Coffee Shop
Internal Revenue Service · primary · Accessed
Employer Social Security is 6.2% up to the 2026 wage base; Medicare is 1.45%. Tips and unemployment taxes need separate treatment. The model's additional unemployment and workers' compensation allowances are not IRS rates.
Source key: cleaning-irs-payroll-2026 · Used by Bakery, Coffee Shop
WebstaurantStore · vendor · Accessed
Opening-cost guidance spans approximately $100,000 to over $600,000 depending on size and location. Equipment and licensing scope inform the illustrative budget.
Source key: coffee-equipment · Used by Coffee Shop
U.S. Small Business Administration · primary · Accessed
Supports distinguishing one-time opening commitments from recurring monthly expenses. It does not validate a case budget, reserve, local price, cash adequacy or financing eligibility. The startup-budget article now links directly to the inspected current planning page.
Source key: sba-startup · Used by Bakery, Coffee Shop
WebstaurantStore · vendor · Accessed
Original supplier lists cafe equipment and service supplies. Supports the conventional but coordinated setup for a staffed cafe; equipment prices and the earlier Coffee research model are not adopted.
Source key: scoring-coffee-equipment · Used by Coffee Shop
U.S. Food and Drug Administration · primary · Accessed
Explains that the Food Code is a model for retail food regulation adopted by jurisdictions. Supports the need to check local food-service requirements; does not establish one national permit or a quoted compliance cost.
Source key: scoring-fda-food-code · Used by Bakery, Coffee Shop
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · primary · Accessed
Documents the management work that accompanies food preparation and sales: staffing, purchasing, safety supervision, complaints and records. Does not establish a funded replacement manager in these models.
Source key: scoring-food-managers · Used by Bakery, Coffee Shop
National Coffee Association · industry · Accessed
Original Spring 2026 consumer research release supports repeated coffee consumption and substantial at-home substitution. It does not measure the proposed cafe's traffic, prices, local competition or margins.
Source key: scoring-nca-spring-2026 · Used by Coffee Shop
USDA Economic Research Service · primary · Accessed
Original national data definitions distinguish food acquired at home, away from home and by outlet. Supports the existence of alternative food-purchase channels; national spending is not food-truck or bakery demand verification.
Source key: scoring-usda-food-outlets · Used by Bakery