Winery input evidence register
45 numeric input paths with their assumptions, calculation bases and cited sources.
Case updated September 29, 2026. This technical appendix accompanies the complete case methodology and source register.
Dataset use notice: no Creative Commons license or DOI is asserted. Referenced material remains subject to its publisher’s terms.
A linked reference can support scope without confirming an exact forecast. Assumption entries identify values that still require local validation. Each field path identifies an input in the common business record.
- Model assumption
Authored purchased-grape winery opening allocation. Sources establish planning, qualification and hazard categories but do not verify the site, equipment, grape, inventory, insurance or reserve amounts.
capital.total · capital.low · capital.high · capital.items.0.amount · capital.items.1.amount · capital.items.2.amount · capital.items.3.amount · capital.items.4.amount · capital.items.5.amount · capital.items.6.amount · capital.items.7.amount
- Model assumption
Authored five-year revenue path. Official sources establish industry and aggregate reporting context but not local sold cases, channel value, release timing or growth.
forecast.years.0.revenue · forecast.years.1.revenue · forecast.years.2.revenue · forecast.years.3.revenue · forecast.years.4.revenue
- Model assumption
Authored direct-cost percentages covering grapes, packaging, barrels, excise, freight, losses, discounts and channel-linked costs. Tax class and eligibility require current verification; no source validates the percentages.
forecast.years.0.costOfSales · forecast.years.1.costOfSales · forecast.years.2.costOfSales · forecast.years.3.costOfSales · forecast.years.4.costOfSales
- Model assumption
Authored paid staffing budget. BLS and IRS supply national wage and federal employer context but not winemaker skill, local offers, seasonal hours or full employer burden.
forecast.years.0.payroll · forecast.years.1.payroll · forecast.years.2.payroll · forecast.years.3.payroll · forecast.years.4.payroll
- Model assumption
Authored occupancy and overhead path. Sources identify operating context but not rent, utilities, wastewater, storage, maintenance, insurance, sales or compliance cost.
forecast.years.0.occupancyAndOther · forecast.years.1.occupancyAndOther · forecast.years.2.occupancyAndOther · forecast.years.3.occupancyAndOther · forecast.years.4.occupancyAndOther
- Model assumption
The $225 sold-case value, 50 daily equivalents, five-day schedule, 52% contribution, $105,000 monthly fixed cost and ramp are authored assumptions. Sources provide context only.
unitEconomics.driver.model · unitEconomics.driver.low · unitEconomics.driver.high · unitEconomics.volume.model · unitEconomics.volume.low · unitEconomics.volume.high · unitEconomics.daysPerWeek.model · unitEconomics.daysPerWeek.low · unitEconomics.daysPerWeek.high · unitEconomics.fixedCostsMonthly · unitEconomics.contributionMargin · unitEconomics.ramp.startShare · unitEconomics.ramp.stepPerMonth · unitEconomics.ramp.horizonMonths