How many cases does a small winery need to sell?
Calculate small-winery break-even from sold case equivalents, channel value, contribution, aging inventory and fixed operating cost.
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The StartFigures purchased-grape winery case needs about 898 sold 9-liter case equivalents per month to cover simplified operating costs. At $225 of blended realized revenue per case and a 52% contribution margin, each sold case contributes $117. With $105,000 of monthly fixed costs, the continuous threshold is 897.4 cases per month.
The mature case sells 50 case equivalents per operating day across five days per week, or about 1,083 per average month and 13,000 per 52-week year. Production, bottling and club allocation do not become revenue until the sale is recognized.
The $225 case value, 50-case day, 52% contribution and $105,000 monthly fixed cost are authored assumptions. They are not a local retail price, club forecast, distributor order, vintage yield or grape contract.
Define one sold case equivalent
A 9-liter case equivalent standardizes twelve 750-milliliter bottles, bulk or alternative packages to a common sold volume. The ledger keeps wine product, vintage, package and channel separate. A tasting-room case, club allocation and wholesale case may have very different realized values and direct costs.
The matching paid workbook uses the E21 manufacturing engine. Each wine product line has its own units and price. The same wine cannot be counted as bulk production, barrel inventory, bottled stock, club allocation and final sale at once.
Reconcile wine from grapes to cash
| Stage | Record | Question |
|---|---|---|
| Receive | Grape source, variety, weight, condition, price and acceptance | What entered the production system? |
| Produce and age | Lot volume, transfers, treatments, barrels, loss, laboratory results and hold | How much releaseable wine exists? |
| Package and allocate | Bottles, closures, cases, lot codes, storage, samples and channel allocation | Where is every released case equivalent? |
| Sell and collect | Tasting-room, club, direct and wholesale sale, discount, return and receivable | Which allocation became recognized and collected revenue? |
This case buys grapes and does not own a vineyard. Vineyard land, planting, farming, crop yield and agricultural debt would require a different capital and operating model.
Calculate case-level break-even
At a 52% contribution margin, $225 of realized revenue leaves $117 contribution per sold case equivalent after grapes, cellar inputs, barrels, packaging, excise, freight, discounts, loss and channel-linked costs.
$105,000 ÷ $117 = 897.4 sold case equivalents per month. Across five operating days per week, that equals about 41.5 sold cases per operating day.
At 50 daily equivalents, monthly volume is 50 × 5 × 4.33 = 1,082.5 cases. Monthly revenue is about $243,563, contribution is $126,653, and simplified operating surplus is about $21,653 before depreciation, financing, income tax, replacement capital, inventory timing and distributions.
Stress channel value and contribution
| Case | Assumptions | Cases/month |
|---|---|---|
| Lower channel value | $140/case · 52% margin · $105,000 fixed/month | 1,442.3 |
| Base | $225/case · 52% margin · $105,000 fixed/month | 897.4 |
| Higher direct-sale value | $320/case · 52% margin · $105,000 fixed/month | 631.0 |
| More direct-cost leakage | $225/case · 42% margin · $105,000 fixed/month | 1,111.1 |
| Higher fixed cost | $225/case · 52% margin · $125,000 fixed/month | 1,068.4 |
The lower-value case needs more than 1,400 cases per month. A wholesale-heavy mix may still work, but only when production, storage, sales access and working capital can support the higher physical volume.
Use federal and national context carefully
Census defines wineries to include operations that make wine from grapes grown elsewhere, as well as vineyard wineries and blenders. Its 2023 national profile reports 4,560 employer winery establishments. That count does not establish grape supply, tasting-room traffic, club retention, wholesale access or wine quality. Census winery profile.
TTB explains that commercial wine production, untaxpaid storage, blending and bottling require the applicable qualification and that federal approval must precede operation. TTB also publishes wine reports derived from premises filings. Neither source approves this site or forecast. Federal wine application process and Wine Reports.
TTB's label-approval guidance and tax-rate table establish additional product-specific checks. The actual wine, package, sales geography, producer eligibility and removals determine the result. Certificate of Label Approval and TTB tax rates.
Read the five-year case
| Year | Revenue | Operating result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | $900,000 | -$605,000 |
| 2 | $1,800,000 | -$294,000 |
| 3 | $2,925,000 | $260,000 |
| 4 | $3,350,000 | $415,500 |
| 5 | $3,750,000 | $560,000 |
The next test is a controlled pilot lot sold through the intended channels. Record grape input, yield, transfer and aging loss, labor, laboratory and release evidence, packages, inventory, realized price, discount, return, receivable and cash. Add tanks, barrels or hospitality capacity only after the records identify the real bottleneck.
The Winery case contains the complete $2.5 million allocation and forecast. Its evidence register separates sources from assumptions, while the business plan and financial model explain qualification, inventory and product-line adaptation.