Liquor store cash: settle the license before the stock order
Check a liquor store's license, supplier payment dates and opening reserve before committing to the lease, then test stock purchases against operating cash.
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Confirm the right to sell the intended products at the chosen address before making an unconditional lease commitment or a broad opening stock order. Then fund both the merchandise and the cash needed for payroll, premises and supplier payments during the sales ramp. An operating break-even calculation cannot answer all three questions.
The StartFigures liquor store case covers a neighborhood retailer of sealed spirits, wine and packaged beer for off-premise consumption. It pays a working owner and retail staff and excludes production, wholesale, delivery, subscriptions and paid tastings. The figures below are authored U.S. planning assumptions in constant 2026 dollars, with their basis in the evidence register. They are neither national startup averages nor copied seller forecasts.
Make the location and license one decision
A retail lease and federal registration do not establish the right to sell spirits. TTB requires alcohol-dealer registration before business at each location. State and local permission for the intended products remains a separate question. TTB retailer guidance.
The difference can be consequential. California's general-license process restricts availability and may involve a priority drawing or an approved transaction involving an existing license. Texas city and county officials certify whether a location is wet or dry for the proposed activity. These are examples of different jurisdictional systems, not interchangeable requirements. California's 2026 priority instructions, Texas location certification.
| Commitment | Required finding | Decision when unresolved |
|---|---|---|
| Unconditional lease | Correct spirits permission, applicant and address eligibility, conditions and landlord work | Keep an effective approval condition or defer commitment |
| Installed work | Approved scope, building/electrical requirements and written installed bids | Revise the scope before paying nonrecoverable deposits |
| Opening assortment | Authorized supplier, landed margin, case packs and valid payment terms | Stage or narrow the purchase |
| Public opening | Permission in force, compliant staff procedures and cash for the downside path | Do not rely on future sales to close an immediate funding gap |
The case includes an application and professional allowance, but excludes the market purchase of a scarce transferable license. That exclusion is a boundary on the budget. If the actual market requires such a transaction, obtain evidence of availability and price and rebuild the opening uses. Increasing stock funding does not solve missing permission.
The final calendar also needs actual local rules. For example, Texas package stores cannot trade on Sundays and specified holidays. The website's six-day, 4.33-week monthly convention is an equivalent operating assumption; it does not replace a dated lawful calendar. TABC hours guidance.
Separate merchandise from cash that can pay wages
The modeled $365,000 opening allocation includes $150,000 of merchandise and a separate $65,000 operating and supplier-timing reserve. The remaining $150,000 funds selective works, fixtures, systems/security, deposits/setup, pre-opening work and contingency. Opening stock is an asset; a refundable lease deposit is also an asset. Neither is automatically an expense of the first trading month.
| Use | Amount | Cash-planning purpose |
|---|---|---|
| Tenant fit-out and electrical work | $45,000 | Selective work in an already-usable retail unit |
| Shelving, counters and refrigeration | $35,000 | Installed retail equipment allowance |
| POS, stock controls and security | $12,000 | Hardware, setup and installation |
| Deposits, applications and professional setup | $20,000 | Refundable deposits and conditional local setup allowance |
| Opening merchandise | $150,000 | Goods at landed acquisition cost |
| Pre-opening training and launch | $18,000 | Paid work and launch before trading begins |
| Installed-work contingency | $20,000 | Unresolved setup scope, separate from operating reserve |
| Operating and supplier-timing cash | $65,000 | Cash remaining after all other opening uses are funded |
| Total | $365,000 | No real estate, goodwill or scarce-license market purchase |
The opening stock allocation is $75,000 spirits, $50,000 wine and $25,000 packaged beer. Those are selected purchase amounts, not expected sales shares. At the mature sales level, landed goods sold cost $101,322 monthly; $150,000 of stock is about 44.4 days on a 30-day inventory convention. This diagnostic says nothing about whether the products shoppers want are available. Slow bottles and fast-selling beer packs can produce the same aggregate stock value.
Keep the opening list attached to actual pack quantities, supplier invoices, selling prices and expected selling rates. The SBA startup-cost framework supports separating one-time and recurring uses; it does not quote this store or establish that its reserve is adequate.
Measure contribution after more than merchandise cost
The selected net basket is $40, illustrated by 1.6 merchandise units at a weighted $25 net price. Discounts and expected sales refunds are already deducted; collected sales tax is excluded. A beer pack is one sold retail unit. Spirits, wine and beer draw from the same completed-order pool.
| Item | Share of net sales | Amount |
|---|---|---|
| Landed goods sold | 75.0% | $30.00 |
| Shrink, breakage and write-offs | 1.0% | $0.40 |
| Bags and selling supplies | 0.2% | $0.08 |
| Effective payment allowance | 2.8% | $1.12 |
| Total variable cost | 79.0% | $31.60 |
| Contribution before fixed costs | 21.0% | $8.40 |
These are selected assumptions to test against invoices, stock counts and processor statements. Square Free publishes a specific in-person charge of 2.6% plus $0.15, rather than the case's effective allowance. At the assumed 80% card share and 8% tax on taxable checkout value, that structure is about 2.55% of net sales at the base basket; the 2.8% allowance retains a cushion. The actual tax, tender mix, plan and contract can differ. Square U.S. fee schedule.
Salable returns reverse goods cost. Unsalable loss belongs in the loss allowance; refunded selling value should not be deducted from sales a second time.
The case pays $160,000 annual owner/team payroll and $110,000 recurring overhead, or $22,500 monthly fixed costs. That requires about $107,143 net monthly sales at 21% contribution, or 104 whole transactions per equivalent trading day at the $40 basket. The mature target is 130. This is an operating threshold, before depreciation, interest and income tax, with the paid roster held constant.
A combined stress of 110 daily orders and 19% contribution produces a monthly operating loss of about $781. More sales with weaker merchandise economics are not equivalent to the same sales at the selected contribution.
Put the invoice on the cash calendar
A purchase and an expense happen at different times. In the following month-three example, ordinary replenishment replaces both goods sold and stock lost so that inventory at cost stays constant. Every purchase is paid that month, net sale receipts settle that month, and tax funds are segregated. No supplier credit, borrowing or delayed payments are assumed.
| Item | Ordinary replenishment | With extra stock |
|---|---|---|
| Net sales receipts | $87,812.40 | $87,812.40 |
| Purchases replacing sold goods and stock loss | −$66,737.42 | −$66,737.42 |
| Extra merchandise purchased and paid | $0.00 | −$30,000.00 |
| Payment charges and selling supplies | −$2,634.37 | −$2,634.37 |
| Paid roster and recurring overhead | −$22,500.00 | −$22,500.00 |
| Net cash movement | −$4,059.40 | −$34,059.40 |
| Operating result | −$4,059.40 | −$4,059.40 |
| Closing stock at landed cost | $150,000.00 | $180,000.00 |
The extra $30,000 stays in stock in this test, with no assumed liquidation or sales recovery. It reduces cash immediately without changing the month's goods expense. Display rounding can move the table's arithmetic by one cent; calculations retain the unrounded inputs.
Do not replace an actual due date with a convenient generic credit term. Texas, for example, prescribes payment deadlines and restricts deliveries to retailers on its delinquent list. That is evidence that payment timing can be regulated, not permission to use the same credit schedule elsewhere or proof that a supplier will extend credit. TABC payment deadlines.
Test the reserve before widening the range
The base ramp begins at 55% of mature orders and adds five percentage points monthly, capped at full volume. Its first nonnegative operating month is month six. The cumulative operating deficit reaches its lowest point earlier, in month five. An annually positive first year does not remove that earlier cash requirement.
| Selected path | Lowest reserve | Timing | Decision implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base ramp, ordinary replenishment | $44,703 | Month 5 | The selected operating losses fit within the $65,000 reserve |
| Base ramp plus $30,000 extra stock | $14,703 | Month 5 | Far less cash remains for unmodeled timing or repairs |
| Slower ramp plus the same extra stock | −$43,677 | Month 14 | Reduce commitments or add at least $43,677 before reaching zero cash |
The slower path starts at 40% of mature orders and adds three percentage points monthly. These are authored stresses without assigned probabilities. They assume the extra stock remains on hand and that normal stock replacement continues; actual supplier due dates and card settlement timing can worsen or improve the result. A prudent minimum cash balance would require additional funding beyond merely avoiding zero.
NIAAA's April 2026 surveillance report records a decline in apparent national per-capita consumption in 2024. That does not predict this shop's orders, but it is contrary evidence to assuming category demand automatically grows. Test the catchment and merchandise mix rather than converting a national total into guaranteed local traffic. NIAAA consumption report.
The next decision is a joined one: written permission findings, an authorized supplier order, a paid peak-coverage roster and a dated cash plan. If one fails, revise the opening scope before the lease and stock commitments become hard to reverse.
